Published Jun 14, 6:24pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 14, 6:24pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 14, 6:24pm ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -190 |
| Miami Marlins | +171 |
The Marlins have won 10 of 12 to reach .500. They're right behind the Phillies for second place in the NL East.
In the first of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philly, 6'4", 235-pound righty Ryan Gusto takes the hill for Miami. He had a very solid start in his last appearance against the Diamondbacks, tossing 4 innings, allowing 3 hits, and no runs, walking 1, and striking out 4.
For the season, he's made 2 starts and 2 relief appearances, tossing 9 innings, allowing 11 hits, 6 earned runs, walking 2, and striking out 9. He's been a starter in the minors, so he should not be expected to be treated as a pure opener.
Liam Hicks leads the Marlins in home runs with 13 and he's among the MLB leaders in RBI with 51. Xavier Edwards is hitting around .300 with 11 stolen bases in 14 attempts and 6 homers. Otto Lopez is batting .343 with an .852 OPS.
Against Zack Wheeler, Christopher Morel is 3 for 12 with a double and a home run. Lopez is 5 for 12 with 2 doubles. Connor Norby is 2 for 6 with 2 singles. Edwards is 2 for 9 with a double. Kyle Stowers is 1 for 8 with a single. Hicks is 0 for 4 with a walk and a strikeout.
Thoracic outlet surgery is one of the most difficult procedures for pitchers to return from effectively. Stephen Strasburg could not come back at all. But Wheeler had the procedure in 2025 and has hit the ground running in 2026.
He's having an All-Star season and is a Cy Young Award contender. In 9 starts, he has a 2.8 bWAR and a 2.22 ERA. In 56.2 innings, he's allowed 36 hits and 14 earned runs, walking 12 and striking out 53.
At the plate, Kyle Schwarber has a .931 OPS and 24 homers. Bryce Harper has an .830 OPS and 15 homers. Brandon Marsh is batting .322 with 8 homers, having a career season. As has been the case all season, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Adolis Garcia, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto are all batting in the low-.200s or worse.
No Phillies hitter has ever faced Gusto in the majors.
The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball since Don Mattingly replaced Rob Thomson as manager. The Marlins are blazing hot and are trying to show they are legitimate playoff contenders.
The pitching matchup looks like a mismatch on paper and it probably is. Gusto is a young pitcher who should not be expected to go beyond 4 innings, max. Wheeler has been one of baseball's top arms this year.
Philly will put up runs against Gusto and roll to victory behind Wheeler.
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Philadelphia Phillies -190
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