Published Jun 14, 1:18pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 14, 1:18pm ET
Updated Jun 14, 1:18pm ET
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| Milwaukee Brewers | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -118 |
Cristopher Sánchez is 8-2 with a 1.54 ERA. He allowed zero runs across five May starts; 39 innings, 45 strikeouts, three walks. He broke the Phillies' 115-year franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings. His FIP of 1.90 and his last three FIPs of 1.48 confirm the ERA is not a sequencing fluke. Against the Pirates on May 16, he threw a complete-game shutout with 13 strikeouts, the best individual pitching performance in the NL this season.
Milwaukee's lineup hits grounders against left-handed pitchers at the highest rate in the league and ranks 25th in ISO over the last month. That profile plays directly into Sánchez's ground-ball heavy approach. Philadelphia is 7-3 in its last ten and their bullpen FIP of 3.26 is the better unit in this game, with a 27.7% strikeout rate.
Kyle Harrison is 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA. He came to Milwaukee in February and immediately became the team's second-best starter behind Jacob Misiorowski. His season ERA is legitimate. His last three starts are not: a 5.15 FIP over that stretch, including four home runs allowed in his last two outings. The stuff hasn't disappeared, but the command and sequencing have slipped in ways that good lineups can exploit.
Milwaukee is 42-26 and leads the NL Central — the best record in the NL. Their lineup carries a .733 OPS into Sunday, 46 points above Philadelphia's .687. Christian Yelich and William Contreras give the Brewers their most dangerous bats, and American Family Field can play as an offensive environment. If Harrison finds his form early, this game gets tight.
Sánchez has given up three runs total since May began. Harrison has allowed four home runs in his last two starts. The pitching gap is real, even at a neutral ballpark with Milwaukee holding the lineup edge.
Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -118
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -118
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