Published Jun 14, 1:11pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 14, 1:11pm ET
Updated Jun 14, 1:11pm ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | +106 |
| New York Yankees | -126 |
Will Warren is 7-1 with a 3.41 ERA. His season has been defined by consistency: eight quality starts in his last ten outings, a 1.21 WHIP that reflects clean command, and a Yankees team that wins at a 77% clip when he takes the ball. His FIP of 3.98 sits above the ERA, which is worth noting, but the gap has not produced the regression that number might suggest. Warren has held up in every series this year.
The Yankees are 42-27 and won Saturday's opener 3-1. New York carries a .760 OPS lineup into Sunday, 59 points above Toronto's .701. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger give the Yankees two dangerous bats against a left-handed pitcher, and the bullpen FIP of 3.61 is the stronger unit when either starter exits early.
Patrick Corbin is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA and a 4.65 FIP. His last three starts have been worse: a 6.77 FIP that says the contact quality against him has picked up significantly. He threw six strong innings against the Pirates in late May, which was the best outing of his season. Outside of that start, he's been giving up runs in clusters to lineups with quality at-bats. Toronto's bullpen FIP of 3.26 is the better unit in this game, but bullpen edges matter less when the starter can't get through five innings.
The Blue Jays are 34-37 and split their last ten games at 5-5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer give Toronto their best run-producing options, and Rogers Centre has been a fair offensive environment this season. The Blue Jays won Saturday's series opener 8-5 before dropping game two Friday — the rubber match goes to whichever team gets more from their starter.
Both starters have shown regression recently, but Corbin's last-three FIP of 6.77 is worse than Warren's 6.65 and the Yankees lineup is the sharper offensive unit. In a game where neither starter may go deep, New York's offense and bullpen edge carry the weight.
Yankees.
Pick: New York Yankees -126
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Pick
New York Yankees -126
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