After a good start to the season in which the Athletics looked like a surprising contender, the wheels have largely come off and they are 13 games below .500 and fading. Still, they are not that far out of the top spot in the mediocre AL West.

In the final game before the All-Star break, the Mariners send Emerson Hancock to the hill to try and break their 5-game skid. Despite the losing streak and having fallen below .500, they are still right near the top of the AL West.

Michael Lorenzen is 3-9 with a 6.65 ERA. His FIP of 4.87 says he has been pitching better than that ugly ERA suggests, but a 4.87 FIP is still below average, and his last-three FIP of 4.96 shows no recent improvement. Lorenzen has been one of the weaker rotation arms in the league this season, and he is going into Oracle Park, a pitcher-friendly ballpark that does not favor a road starter allowing as much contact as he has.

Seth Lugo is 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA. His FIP of 4.38 tracks close to that number on the season, but his last-three FIP of 8.24 is the defining variable in this game. That is the worst recent form of any starter on today's board, and it is not a small-sample fluke inflated by one blowup. Lugo has been genuinely hittable in his recent outings, and he is walking into Camden Yards against a pitcher trending the opposite direction. When one starter is this cold, it reshapes the entire matchup.

Jacob Misiorowski is 10-4 with a 1.62 ERA. His FIP of 2.14 backs the surface line, and even with a last-three FIP of 4.37 that shows a slight recent cooling, his season body of work is among the best of any starter in the National League. A cool stretch for Misiorowski still means a pitcher who has been dominant for most of the year, and he brings that profile into a doubleheader nightcap against a Pittsburgh lineup that will have already played a full game earlier in the day.

It's been a rough go for Cristopher Sanchez since the end of his run of 50.2 consecutive scoreless innings. The worst start came in his last outing when the Royals pounded him for 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings, including 3 homers.

The Yankees hope to head to the All-Star break with some good vibes after a horrid few weeks in the run-up to the Midsummer Classic. The Nationals are no pushover, hovering around contention in the NL Wild Card race.

Reynaldo López is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA. His FIP of 4.28 says the results are running a little ahead of the underlying process, but his last-three FIP of 3.00 shows the recent form is sharp and consistent. López has been a reliable arm for Atlanta, and he is the clear advantage in this pitching matchup by a wide margin. When one starter is this much steadier than the other, it tilts an otherwise even game.

Tanner Bibee is 2-9 with a 4.06 ERA. His FIP of 4.92 says he has been pitching worse than that ERA indicates, and his last-three FIP of 6.03 confirms he is in a genuine cold stretch right now. The season line is not pretty and the recent form is worse. He is walking into loanDepot park against a Marlins team that has been one of the hottest clubs in baseball, and the mound is not where Cleveland is going to find its edge today.

Shane Drohan is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA. His FIP of 3.24 sits close to that number, and his last-three FIP of 3.34 shows the form holding steady. Drohan has been one of the more consistent arms in the Milwaukee rotation, and he is the clear advantage on the mound in this matchup by a full run and a half of FIP. That gap is the driving reason Milwaukee is favored on the road.

Royals' second-year righty Luinder Avila moved into the starting rotation for good at the start of June and has been reasonably good in the role. Apart from a terrible outing against the Astros in which he allowed 8 runs and 5 hits in 2/3 of an inning, he's provided the Royals with around 5 innings a start and kept the opponents' offense under control.

The Red Sox have won 6 straight and are coming off a sweep of the contending White Sox. They are slowly crawling back into playoff contention and, if they maintain their solid play, will not be sellers at the MLB trade deadline.