Published Jun 12, 9:29pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 12, 9:29pm ET
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Updated Jun 12, 9:29pm ET
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| Cleveland Guardians | +137 |
| Detroit Tigers | -151 |
When the Tigers lost Tarik Skubal to elbow surgery at the end of April, they went into a tailspin. They're double-digits below .500 and are out of playoff position.
Still, with the Wild Card and the rampant parity throughout baseball, no team is truly out of it. And that includes the Tigers, who have made the postseason in each of the past two seasons.
Skubal, the 2X reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, was pitching well when he went on the injured list, despite the elbow issue. He had already accrued a 1.6 bWAR and had a 2.70 ERA in 7 starts. In 43.1 innings, he allowed 35 hits and 13 earned runs, walking 6 and striking out 45. The only question is whether the Tigers will keep him on a pitch count or let him loose. Expect caution in his first start off the IL.
He looked good in his rehab starts.
At the plate, Kevin McGonigle leads the AL in bWAR and has an OPS over .800. Dillon Dingler leads the AL in RBI. Rikey Green is batting over .300 with an OPS above .850. Spencer Torkelson is in double-digits in homers, but his average is in the low-.200s.
Against Joey Cantillo, Dingler is 3 for 7 with 2 doubles and a home run. Gleyber Torres is 3 for 8 with a home run. Greene is 2 for 8 with 2 singles. McGonigle is 1 for 2 with a single.
Joey Cantillo has allowed 15 earned runs in 11 innings over his last three starts against the Nationals, Yankees, and Rangers, respectively. His ERA has blown up to 4.57. Still, his overall numbers are passable due to a solid start to the season. In 67 innings, he's allowed 65 hits and 34 earned runs, walking 36 and striking out 63. The walks are a problem and he's allowed 11 homers.
Cleveland is jockeying for 1st place in the AL Central with the surprising White Sox.
Jose Ramirez's batting average is creeping up. It's not past .240 and he's still one of baseball's top players despite his struggles. Brayan Rocchio has an OPS above .750. Angel Martinez leads the team in homers. Steven Kwan is still scuffling with an average in the low-.210s.
Against Skubal, Austin Hedges is 4 for 20 with 4 singles. Kwan is 6 for 23, all singles. Ramirez is 12 for 38 with 3 doubles and a triple. Martinez is 4 for 18 with 2 doubles. Rocchio is 4 for 19 with a double and a triple.
On paper, this looks like a major advantage for the Tigers with their ace Skubal back on the hill. Still, he hasn't pitched in the majors since the end of April and, given the stakes, expect Detroit to be cautious with him. Cleveland will be cognizant of that and try to get his pitch count up.
Cantillo has been terrible of late. Cleveland has had some past success against Skubal.
Still, the Tigers should be energized by the return of their star lefty and will put up runs against Cantillo to take the win.
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Pick
Detroit Tigers -151
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