Published Jun 12, 8:00pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 12, 8:00pm ET
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Updated Jun 12, 8:00pm ET
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| New York Mets | -105 |
| Atlanta Braves | -105 |
Lefty Martin Perez is a journeyman who's bounced to seven teams, including two tours with the Rangers. He keeps finding work because he's generally durable and can be counted on. He's had several comeback seasons after struggling. This is one such year with the Braves.
For the season, he has a 1.2 bWAR in 13 appearances (9 starts). He's tossed 56.2 innings, allowed 40 hits and 19 earned runs, walking 20 and striking out 47. He has a 3.02 ERA.
Atlanta is again without star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr, out with a strained hamstring.
The Braves have built up such a lead in the NL East with the best record in MLB that they can make sure Acuña is 100% healthy before activating him from the injured list.
They are also without developing star catcher Drake Baldwin. Matt Olson has an OPS over .900 and is among the league leaders in home runs. Austin Riley continues to struggle with an average barely over .200 and less than 10 homers. Dom Smith is coming down to Earth after a searing start and his average is hovering around .290.
Against Manaea, Riley is 3 for 4 with a home run. Olson is 2 for 5 with a homer. Smith is 2 for 4 with 2 singles. Rowdy Tellez is 2 for3 with 2 singles. Austin Wynns is 3 for 6 with 3 singles.
The expectation is that reliever Huascar Brazoban will throw the first inning or so and Manaea will relieve him.
After a horrible start with diminished velocity, the veteran Manaea has pitched better of late allowing 2 runs or fewer in his last four appearances. For the season, he has a -0.3 bWAR and a 5.02 ERA. In 43 innings, he's allowed 45 hits and 24 earned runs, walking 17 and striking out 45.
New York is incrementally getting its injured players back. Francisco Alvarez returned quickly from a torn meniscus. Francisco Lindor is expected back from a calf injury in the next few weeks.
Jared Young has all but taken the 1st base job from Mark Vientos with power and on-base skills. Carson Benge is finding his way with an OPS above .700. Juan Soto has an OPS over .900 and leads the team in home runs.
For the Mets against Perez, Marcus Semien is 10 for 37 with 2 doubles, a triple, and a home run. Soto is 3 for 8 with a home run. Bo Bichette is 3 for 7 with a double.
There is no good reason to trust Manaea to hold down the Braves' powerful lineup. He's been passable lately, but can't be trusted, particularly against a team with a ton of power. Perez has been solid all season. New York doesn't score many runs and their hitting is feast or famine, mostly famine.
This all adds up to another Braves win over its favorite punching bag, the Mets.
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -105
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