Published Jun 11, 6:03pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 11, 6:03pm ET
Updated Jun 11, 6:03pm ET
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| Los Angeles Angels | +149 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -175 |
Shane McClanahan is 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA. He came back from Tommy John surgery and a nerve issue in his left triceps that cost him nearly two full seasons, and the results since returning have been the story of Tampa Bay's rotation. His ERA and FIP are within a tenth of each other at 2.85 and 2.98, no sequencing luck, no defensive carry, just consistent run prevention across every start. He's 40-25 on the year with a team that has one of the better road records in the American League, and that road record is built in part on what he gives them every fifth day.
Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda lead a Tampa Bay lineup that scores enough runs to make McClanahan's outings matter. The Rays win games where he starts.
Sam Aldegheri is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The surface number looks strong. His FIP of 4.15 says something different: the contact he's allowing is harder than the ERA reflects, and the results have been held down by factors that tend to correct over time. His last three starts produced a FIP of 4.65, confirming the regression is already in motion. The Angels are 27-42 and have lost four of their last five series. Jack Kochanowicz, the other rotation option, went down with a torn UCL last week, further thinning a pitching staff that needed depth.
Los Angeles has Mike Trout and Nolan Schanuel in the lineup. They can generate runs on a given night. Against McClanahan, generating enough of them to win is the harder part.
McClanahan at 2.85 ERA with a matching FIP against a pitcher whose ERA is three runs ahead of his underlying numbers. Tampa Bay's bullpen holds a FIP edge of nearly a full run. The regression case on Aldegheri is real and the market hasn't priced it out fully.
Rays.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -175
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Pick
Tampa Bay Rays -175
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