Published Jun 11, 5:53pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 11, 5:53pm ET
Updated Jun 11, 5:53pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | +129 |
| Seattle Mariners | -149 |
Bryce Miller is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA. He returned from an oblique injury that cost him the start of the season and has been the best version of himself since coming back: nine strikeouts in a 4-0 shutout over Detroit on June 6, a FIP of 2.52 that sits well behind the ERA. His last three starts produced a 1.23 FIP. That number is not sustainable over a full season, but it reflects a pitcher who is missing bats, limiting walks, and keeping the ball off the barrel at an elite rate.
Seattle is 36-33 overall and 19-16 on the road. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez give the Mariners their most reliable run-producing options. They don't need much behind Miller when he's pitching like this.
Zack Littell is 6-4 with a 4.76 ERA. His underlying ERA from the previous two seasons, both below 3.81, made him a legitimate rotation piece when Washington signed him in March. This year has been different. His FIP is 5.99, meaning the contact against him has been harder and more frequent than even the ERA reflects. His last-three FIP of 3.21 suggests some correction is underway, but 3.21 against a Seattle lineup with a .713 OPS is a step up from what he's been facing recently.
Washington is 35-34 and playing competitive baseball in the NL East. CJ Abrams and Luis García give the Nationals two legitimate lineup threats, and their home record is better than the overall number suggests. This is not a team that rolls over. They just don't have the pitching advantage tonight.
Miller at 1.33 ERA and a last-three FIP of 1.23 against a Nationals starter who has given up hard contact all season. Seattle's bullpen holds a 1.37 FIP edge. Every signal points the same direction.
Mariners.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -149
|
Pick
Seattle Mariners -149
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
