Published Jun 12, 6:23pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 12, 6:23pm ET
Updated Jun 12, 6:23pm ET
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| Minnesota Twins | -115 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -105 |
Matthew Liberatore is 4-5 with a 4.48 ERA and a 4.64 FIP. The numbers are not pretty on the surface, but his last three starts tell a more useful story: a 3.70 FIP over that stretch, which tracks with a pitcher who has settled into a groove after a rough first half of the season. Liberatore works off a fastball-changeup combination that plays well against right-handed hitters, and the Cardinals lineup gives him room for error on days when he's not at his sharpest.
St. Louis is 7-3 over its last ten games; one of the hotter teams in the NL right now. Jordan Walker and Nolan Arenado anchor the lineup with a .715 OPS that edges Minnesota's .705. The Cardinals' bullpen FIP of 4.10 is better than the Twins' 4.59, giving St. Louis a backend edge when Liberatore's pitch count climbs.
Connor Prielipp is 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA. That number is misleading. His FIP sits at 3.47, which means the runs against him have come in unlucky clusters rather than from consistent hard contact. His last three starts produced a FIP of 1.79 — the strongest recent stretch of his career. Prielipp has a swing-and-miss curveball that generates strikeouts, and when his fastball command holds, he's capable of keeping good lineups quiet for five or six innings.
Minnesota is 4-6 over its last ten games. The Twins have the home advantage and a genuine pitching edge in Prielipp's underlying numbers, but their lineup and their recent form have not held up. Target Field suppresses offense, which helps both sides.
St. Louis brings superior team form (7-3 last 10) and a lineup edge into a ballpark where the Twins have been cold. Prielipp's FIP is better than Liberatore's, but team quality and momentum outweigh the starter gap here. The Cardinals are the right side near even money.
Cardinals.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -105
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals -105
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