Published Jun 12, 6:15pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 12, 6:15pm ET
Updated Jun 12, 6:15pm ET
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| Chicago White Sox | +165 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -200 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is pitching with a 2.68 ERA and a 3.47 FIP. His last three starts produced an FIP of 2.22. On June 6, he retired 22 consecutive Angels batters across eight innings, the kind of outing that reflects a pitcher who has found every element of his game at once. He works off a fastball-splitter combination that generates swings and misses down in the zone, and his command has been sharp enough to limit walks in every recent outing.
The Dodgers are 45-22 and carry an .789 OPS lineup into Rate Field. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani (who takes the day off from pitching duties) give Los Angeles one of the deepest collections of hitters in baseball. Their bullpen FIP sits at 3.38 with a 27.9% strikeout rate, which is the better unit in this game by a significant margin.
Sean Burke is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA and a 3.74 FIP. His last three starts brought his FIP down to 2.50, suggesting some genuine improvement in recent weeks. The command has been more consistent, and he's been keeping the ball in the park. But Burke is still a young arm finding himself against major league lineups, and the Dodgers are not a team that gives pitchers room to work through early trouble.
Chicago's lineup carries a .739 OPS, 50 points below Los Angeles. The White Sox bullpen FIP is 4.47, more than a full run behind the Dodgers. Chicago has shown fight this season, and their record over the last ten games (60%) matches Los Angeles, but the underlying numbers on both sides of the ball tell a different story about which team has the structural advantage.
Yamamoto in his best stretch of the season against a White Sox offense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Los Angeles has the FIP edge, the bullpen edge, and the lineup edge. The -200 price is steep, but the gap in pitching quality and lineup depth justifies it.
Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -200
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -200
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