Published Jun 14, 1:14pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 14, 1:14pm ET
Updated Jun 14, 1:14pm ET
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| Minnesota Twins | -114 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -105 |
Michael McGreevy is 3-5 with a 2.99 ERA. The losses have come despite solid pitching: he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts, and his 1.08 WHIP reflects a pitcher who limits walks and works efficiently through lineups. His FIP of 4.30 sits above the ERA, which creates some regression risk. But the ERA has held across 72-plus innings, and McGreevy has kept the Cardinals in games consistently enough to trust the surface number here.
St. Louis is 38-30 and has won seven of its last ten, one of the hotter teams in the NL right now. Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals lineup with 79 hits and 56 RBI. The Cardinals are also 8-3 in games where they have been favored, and their bullpen FIP of 4.26 edges Minnesota's 4.72 for the backend advantage.
Taj Bradley is 5-3 with a 4.02 ERA. The record flatters him. His FIP over his last three starts is 7.30, which means hitters have been making hard contact at a significant clip in recent outings, with 19 hits and 13 runs allowed over his last 13 innings. Bradley has a swing-and-miss curveball that can neutralize lineups when it's working, but when his command slips, the pitch becomes hittable. The Cardinals have shown this season that they can generate runs in clusters, and Bradley's recent form suggests he is in a stretch where the command is not where it needs to be.
Minnesota is 32-40 and has lost seven of its last ten games. The Twins have the home advantage at Target Field, which plays as a fair offensive environment. Byron Buxton and Josh Bell give Minnesota their best run-producing options, but the team's cold stretch and Bradley's recent struggles make this a difficult spot to back the home side.
Bradley's 7.30 FIP over his last three starts against a Cardinals team that has won seven of ten. St. Louis holds the form edge, the bullpen edge, and a starter who has kept the ERA clean across a full half-season sample. The gap between these teams right now is real.
Cardinals.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -105
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals -105
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