Published Jun 14, 9:22pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 14, 9:22pm ET
Updated Jun 14, 9:31pm ET
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| Chicago Cubs | -205 |
| Colorado Rockies | +170 |
Michael Lorenzen is 2-8 with a 7.54 ERA. He has allowed 11 home runs in 60.2 innings and gave up eight runs to the Angels in his most recent start. His last seven starts have produced a 9.84 ERA, and Wrigley Field is not an environment that fixes those problems. His FIP of 4.89 tells a more optimistic story than the ERA, and his last-three FIP of 3.40 suggests some genuine recent improvement. But the ERA is what it is across a large enough sample to take seriously.
Colorado is 26-45 and has one of the worst records in the NL. The Rockies do have some lineup pieces; Ezequiel Tovar and Hunter Goodman have provided run-scoring moments this season. They are also 4-12 against left-handed starters in 2026, which is relevant given who Chicago is running out on Monday.
Shota Imanaga is 4-6 with a 4.44 ERA. The season line has been inconsistent, but his career track record against Colorado is clean: six shutout innings in his only previous start against this franchise. His last outing against the Rockies on June 10 produced seven strikeouts in five scoreless innings. Imanaga works off a fastball-changeup mix that generates weak contact, and his 74 strikeouts against 19 walks reflect a pitcher who commands the zone.
The Cubs are 37-34 and 50% in their last ten games. Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson anchor the Chicago lineup. Their bullpen FIP of 4.54 edges Colorado's 4.75. At home against a pitcher with a 7.54 ERA, the Cubs should generate enough offense to win this game.
Imanaga at home against the worst ERA on the Monday slate. Colorado hits left-handed starters at a .356 slugging percentage in 2026, and Wrigley Field is not Coors. The Cubs get the pitching edge, the home edge, and the lineup edge.
Cubs.
Pick: Chicago Cubs (-205)
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Pick
Chicago Cubs (-205)
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