Belmont Stakes Trends: Stats to Find The Winner of the Triple Crown Race

The Triple Crown series draws to its conclusion this weekend, as Saratoga hosts the G1 Belmont Stakes. Traditionally regarded as one of the most competitive races on the calendar, it will offer clues for bigger races for the remainder of the season. But, what are the trends and stats worth considering when attempting to find the winner of the Belmont Stakes?

Belmont Stakes Odds

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Belmont Stakes Trends

Early Speed is Crucial

A key trend to follow this weekend when making Belmont Stakes picks is the importance of tactical speed. This is reflected by the fact that 15 of the last 20 winners have raced within four lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Eight winners over the same period have also been positioned first, second, or third.

This could be damaging to the chances of Chief Wallabee and Golden Tempo, while contenders such as Renegade and Emerging Market will likely be closer to the pace.

Kentucky Derby Starters

A vitally important trend is the record of runners that have previously run in the Kentucky Derby. A total of 16 of the last 25 Belmont winners have contested the opening leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs, while 12 of the 16 went directly to the Belmont Stakes following their run in the Kentucky Derby.

This favors all runners from this year’s Derby, as no runner from the Preakness Stakes lines up at Saratoga this year.

Weak Record of Favorites

Favorites have a historically poor record in the Belmont Stakes, with just seven of the previous 30 landing. Interestingly, long shots have a better strike rate over the same period, winning 12 of the 30 editions.

Therefore, that could be concerning for those thinking of siding with Renegade on Saturday.

Proven Graded Winners

Horses that have won previous graded races should be respected in the Belmont Stakes. A total of 17 of the last 25 winners of the Belmont have won at least a Grade 3 before landing the Test of a Champion.

This trend has become even more vital in recent years, with eleven of the last 12 winners having won a graded race before landing the Belmont.

Belmont Stakes Picks Based on Trends

Based on the trends, Emerging Market comes out on top. The Chad Brown-runner is a proven runner that sits closely off the pace, and his last run came in the Kentucky Derby.

Furthermore, he bypassed the Preakness Stakes, and won’t be the favorite at Saratoga on Saturday. Crucially, Emerging Market is also a winner in graded company, having landed the G2 Louisiana Derby on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.