The White Sox have made a stunning rise to contention after several objectively horrific seasons. Davis Martin has been a key part of that. He's leading MLB in wins with 9. His bWAR is 3.2, and he has a 2.41 ERA in 13 starts. In 78.1 innings, he's allowed 69 hits and 21 earned runs, walking 17 and striking out 79.

The Blue Jays are still playing inconsistently and are 4 games under .500. They just lost 2 of 3 at home to the Yankees.

Adrian Houser is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA and a 5.23 FIP. He has failed to complete five innings in each of his last two starts. The underlying numbers confirm this is not a sequencing issue: his last three FIPs of 5.58 is consistent with a pitcher who has been allowing hard contact at an elevated rate throughout the season.

Framber Valdez is 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA and a 4.51 FIP. He signed with Detroit after nine seasons with Houston and was expected to anchor this rotation. The results have been inconsistent. His ERA has climbed over the last month and his last three starts have produced a 5.79 FIP — nearly 1.3 points above his season baseline, reflecting real deterioration in the underlying contact quality. His worst outing of the season came in May, when he allowed 10 runs against the Red Sox before being pulled in the third inning.

Michael Wacha is 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA. The surface ERA has held up, but his FIP of 4.08 says the contact quality against him has been harder than the results reflect. His last three starts have pushed that gap further: a 4.45 FIP over that stretch, trending in the wrong direction. Wacha has been surviving on a combination of good sequencing and weak opponent lineups, but the Washington lineup presents a harder test than most of what he's faced recently.

Troy Melton is 2-3 with a 2.81 ERA. He threw eight innings against the Rays on June 3, allowing one run in a complete-game-caliber outing that sealed a Detroit sweep. His ERA reflects a pitcher who has been getting hitters out consistently, but his FIP of 5.41 indicates the underlying contact quality has been harder than the results show. That's a gap worth tracking. The ERA has held across enough starts to take at face value for now, but regression toward the FIP is a real possibility on any given night.

Tobias Myers is 4-5 with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.56 FIP. He has been good enough to keep the Mets in games when his command holds, but the FIP gap between him and Burns is significant. Myers generates outs on soft contact and limits walks, but his pitch profile does not miss bats at the rate that elite starters do. The Mets are 31-39 and have gone 6-4 in their last ten, a fair run for a team that has been below .500 most of the season.

Michael Lorenzen is 2-8 with a 7.54 ERA. He has allowed 11 home runs in 60.2 innings and gave up eight runs to the Angels in his most recent start. His last seven starts have produced a 9.84 ERA, and Wrigley Field is not an environment that fixes those problems. His FIP of 4.89 tells a more optimistic story than the ERA, and his last-three FIP of 3.40 suggests some genuine recent improvement. But the ERA is what it is across a large enough sample to take seriously.

Veteran Nick Martinez has a 2.43 ERA and a 2.5 bWAR so far this season. While he was reasonably effective for much of 2025 with the Reds, he had a 2.2 bWAR for the season and accrued a 4.45 ERA. The righty has become one of the most resilient and trustworthy journeymen in MLB.

The Marlins have won 10 of 12 to reach .500. They're right behind the Phillies for second place in the NL East.

Cristopher Sánchez is 8-2 with a 1.54 ERA. He allowed zero runs across five May starts; 39 innings, 45 strikeouts, three walks. He broke the Phillies' 115-year franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings. His FIP of 1.90 and his last three FIPs of 1.48 confirm the ERA is not a sequencing fluke. Against the Pirates on May 16, he threw a complete-game shutout with 13 strikeouts, the best individual pitching performance in the NL this season.

Michael McGreevy is 3-5 with a 2.99 ERA. The losses have come despite solid pitching: he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts, and his 1.08 WHIP reflects a pitcher who limits walks and works efficiently through lineups. His FIP of 4.30 sits above the ERA, which creates some regression risk. But the ERA has held across 72-plus innings, and McGreevy has kept the Cardinals in games consistently enough to trust the surface number here.