Published Jun 15, 7:31pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 15, 7:31pm ET
Updated Jun 15, 7:31pm ET
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| Washington Nationals | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals | +105 |
Michael Wacha is 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA. The surface ERA has held up, but his FIP of 4.08 says the contact quality against him has been harder than the results reflect. His last three starts have pushed that gap further: a 4.45 FIP over that stretch, trending in the wrong direction. Wacha has been surviving on a combination of good sequencing and weak opponent lineups, but the Washington lineup presents a harder test than most of what he's faced recently.
Kansas City is 29-39 with a .694 OPS lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino give the Royals their two most productive bats, and their form over the last ten games (50%) is essentially neutral. The Royals' bullpen FIP of 4.99 is the weaker unit in this game.
Foster Griffin is 7-2 with a 3.46 ERA. The record and ERA look good. His FIP of 4.79 and last-three FIP of 6.03 tell a different story: Griffin has been allowing hard contact at a rate that the ERA has not yet caught up with, and his recent outings suggest the correction is arriving. He has given up runs in clusters in three of his last four starts.
Washington is 38-36 and 60% in their last ten games. CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker anchor the Nationals lineup at a .744 OPS, which is the stronger offensive unit in this matchup. Nationals Park plays as a fair environment, and Washington has been one of the more consistent home teams in the NL this month. The home edge and lineup edge are the primary drivers of this pick.
Washington holds the lineup edge and the home edge against a Wacha who is overperforming his FIP. Griffin's recent form is a concern, but the Nationals' offense should provide enough runway. This is a lean driven by team quality and home field rather than a dominant starter edge.
Nationals.
Pick: Washington Nationals -125
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Pick
Washington Nationals -125
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