Published Jun 22, 7:27pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 22, 7:27pm ET
Updated Jun 22, 7:27pm ET
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| Los Angeles Angels | +132 |
| Baltimore Orioles | -156 |
Shane Baz is 4-7 with a 3.94 ERA. His FIP of 3.86 sits just below the ERA, meaning the underlying contact quality is tracking close to what the results show. His FIP over his last three starts is 3.43 — a slight improvement on his season baseline, and a number that reflects a pitcher who has tightened his command in recent outings. Baz works off a fastball-curveball combination that generates whiffs, and he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts.
Baltimore is 37-42 overall and 5-5 in its last ten. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander give the Orioles their most productive run producers, and their .724 OPS lineup matches up well against a rotation that has been unpredictable. Their bullpen FIP of 3.90 with a 23.4% strikeout rate is the steadier backend unit in this game.
The Angels have not announced a starter for Tuesday. This is likely a bullpen game, meaning Los Angeles will open with a reliever and cycle through multiple arms rather than rely on a traditional starter. That approach can work in specific matchups; against a Baltimore lineup that has been competitive and a pitcher in Baz's current form, the structural disadvantage is real.
Los Angeles is 32-47, one of the worst records in the AL. Their .721 OPS is essentially even with Baltimore's .724. The Angels' bullpen has been inconsistent, and asking that unit to carry the full game on the road in a late-night start is a difficult position. Every factor in this game points the same direction, just not by a wide margin.
Baz with a 3.43 FIP over his last three starts against an unannounced Angels starter. Baltimore holds the pitching edge. The lineup and form edges are modest, but every signal points the same way.
Orioles.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles -156
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Pick
Baltimore Orioles -156
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