Published Jun 22, 7:23pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 22, 7:23pm ET
Updated Jun 22, 7:23pm ET
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| Chicago White Sox | -105 |
| Cleveland Guardians | -115 |
Parker Messick is 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA. He took a no-hit bid into the ninth inning against the Orioles in April and has been one of the more consistent left-handed starters in the American League since. His FIP of 3.25 sits above the ERA, which means some outperformance is in play, but his FIP over his last three starts is 3.90. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his ten starts this season.
Cleveland is 41-37 and has gone 4-6 in its last ten — a cold stretch for a team that has been competitive all year. José Ramírez and Kyle Manzardo anchor the Guardians' lineup, which carries a .683 OPS on the season. Their bullpen FIP of 3.74 with a 26.7% strikeout rate is the sharper backend unit in this game, holding a 1.34-point edge over Chicago's 5.08.
Sean Burke is 4-4 with a 3.89 ERA. His FIP of 4.01 closely matches the surface number, with no significant over- or underperformance, just a pitcher who has been what he's been all season. His FIP over his last three starts is 3.95, which shows no real trend in either direction. Burke generates outs on contact and avoids big innings when his command holds. He's been competitive enough to keep Chicago in games, but he hasn't been at Messick's level this season.
Chicago is 39-37 and 4-6 in its last ten games, the same cold stretch as Cleveland. The White Sox carry a .729 OPS, which is 46 points above Cleveland's .683 and the lineup advantage in this matchup. That edge is real but doesn't offset the gap in starting pitching or what Cleveland can do in the late innings with their bullpen.
Messick at 2.70 ERA against a Burke who is solid but a full run and a half behind on FIP. Cleveland's bullpen is 1.34 points better. The market has this as a dead-even coin flip, but the pitching says otherwise.
Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians -115
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Pick
Cleveland Guardians -115
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