Published Jun 22, 7:29pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 22, 7:29pm ET
Updated Jun 22, 7:29pm ET
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| New York Mets | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs | +118 |
Edward Cabrera is 4-4 with a 5.21 ERA. He came to Chicago with a reputation for a high-spin fastball and a developing changeup, and the stuff is still there — his strikeout rate has been solid in outings where the command holds. The ERA reflects a season where the command has been inconsistent enough to let lineups string together at-bats. The Cubs have won with him and lost with him depending on which version shows up.
Chicago is 40-37 and has won six of its last ten. Their .738 OPS holds a clear 69-point edge over New York's .669, the largest lineup gap in this series. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki anchor Chicago's run-producing options, and the Cubs have shown all season they can generate offense against pitchers who miss zones.
Nolan McLean is 4-4 with a 3.67 ERA. The right-hander has been one of New York's more reliable arms in the back half of the rotation — consistent, if not dominant. His ERA tracks with his underlying contact profile, and he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts. McLean's best quality is limiting walks and working efficiently through lineups, which keeps his pitch count manageable deep into games.
New York is 34-43 and 5-5 in its last ten. The Mets' .669 OPS is the thinner offensive unit in this game. Their bullpen FIP of 3.56 with a 25.5% strikeout rate is the stronger backend unit, which will matter if McLean exits early. The home advantage at Citi Field adds a modest edge to an otherwise tight matchup.
Chicago holds the lineup edge by 69 OPS points and enters as the hotter team over the last ten games. McLean is the more reliable arm in this game on current numbers, but Citi Field's advantage and a steadier starter don't fully offset a lineup gap this clear.
Cubs.
Pick: Chicago Cubs +118
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Pick
Chicago Cubs +118
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