Published Jun 21, 11:25am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 11:25am ET
Updated Jun 21, 11:25am ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -193 |
| New York Mets | +158 |
David Peterson is 3-4 with a 5.91 ERA. The number is inflated: his FIP sits at 3.81, which means the damage has come in clusters — bad innings followed by clean ones, the kind of sequencing that piles up ERA without reflecting how he actually threw the ball. His last-three FIP of 3.37 is encouraging. He's getting grounders, limiting walks, and keeping the ball in the park. The problem is he's doing this against lineups that aren't Philadelphia's.
The Mets are 32-41 overall. Their .671 OPS ranks near the bottom of the NL. Juan Soto is the one bat in this lineup that Citizens Bank Park fears, but one bat isn't enough against a pitcher who hasn't given up a run in five of his last seven starts. Their bullpen FIP of 3.55 is solid, which at least keeps them competitive once Peterson exits.
Zack Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.01 ERA. His FIP of 3.44 says he's been pitching with some defensive and sequencing support behind him, and his last-three FIP of 3.31 is where his true performance level sits right now. None of that changes what the ERA says across a large enough sample: Wheeler has been the best pitcher on this staff, and the stuff is working at Citizens Bank Park in ways that don't always show up in peripherals.
The Phillies are 40-33 and have won six of their last ten. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner anchor a .694 OPS lineup, and the bullpen FIP of 3.30 with a 27.4% strikeout rate is the cleaner backend in this game. Wheeler doesn't need to be dominant to win tonight. He needs to be Wheeler, which lately has been enough.
Wheeler at home against a Mets lineup with a .671 OPS, pitching with the best ERA in this series. Philadelphia holds the pitching edge, the bullpen edge, and the lineup edge.
Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -193
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -193
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