Published Jun 21, 11:19am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 11:19am ET
Updated Jun 21, 11:19am ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -210 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +175 |
Brandon Young is 4-5 with a 3.18 ERA. His FIP of 4.14 says he's been outperforming his contact profile; there's some defensive and sequencing support in that ERA. His last-three FIP of 3.62 is more than a run above the surface ERA but still a workable number for a pitcher who throws strikes and limits walks. Young has given up two or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts. He's not a weak arm; he just has to survive a lineup that doesn't give starters much room.
Baltimore is 34-40 and 5-5 in its last ten. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander give the Orioles their best run-producing options, and their .717 OPS has been capable of generating enough offense in games where Young keeps them in it. Their bullpen FIP of 3.91 is solid but trails what Los Angeles can put out there.
Emmet Sheehan is 5-4 with a 4.76 ERA. He's been trending the wrong direction: his last-three FIP of 5.12 is worse than his already-below-average season number, which means hitters have been making harder contact in recent outings. On paper, Young is the better pitcher in this game. The reason to back Los Angeles anyway is what surrounds Sheehan on both sides: a .783 OPS lineup that leads the NL, and a 3.41 bullpen FIP with a 27.9% strikeout rate that is one of the better backend units in baseball.
The Dodgers are 46-27 and 6-4 in their last ten. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani give Los Angeles a lineup that doesn't need the starter to dominate — they just need him to hold things together long enough for the offense to take over. Baltimore's lineup is capable. The Dodgers are in a different tier.
Young is the better arm on paper today, but Los Angeles holds a 66-point OPS lineup edge and the deeper bullpen. This is a team-quality pick, not a starter-quality pick.
Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -210
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -210
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