Published Jun 21, 11:34am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 11:34am ET
Updated Jun 21, 11:34am ET
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| Chicago Cubs | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | -125 |
Dylan Cease is 7-4 with a 2.71 ERA. He struck out 10 Angels batters over seven scoreless innings on May 9. He struck out eight Dodgers in his Blue Jays debut in April. His FIP of 2.42 is actually below his already-strong ERA, which means the underlying contact quality confirms the results: he's been this good. His last-three FIP of 2.64 shows no cooling. Cease throws hard, his slider generates consistent whiffs, and he has been the kind of arm Toronto built around when they signed him.
The Blue Jays are 36-38 and have won six of their last ten. Their .703 OPS lineup is thinner than Chicago's .738, but the bullpen is where Toronto makes up ground: a 3.36 FIP with a 24.9% strikeout rate is a meaningful backend advantage over the Cubs' 4.82. Both teams are 6-4 in their last ten games, so form doesn't separate them. The pitching matchup does.
Shota Imanaga is 5-6 with a 4.26 ERA. He came into this season as one of the more interesting pitchers in the NL after a strong 2025, but the 2026 results have been uneven. His FIP of 4.63 sits above the ERA, meaning the contact quality against him has been harder than the runs allowed suggest. His last-three FIP of 5.19 is the number that defines where he is right now: hitters are squaring him up, and the ground-ball rate that made him effective earlier in the year has dropped.
Chicago has the stronger lineup in this game, with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki giving the Cubs two of the better contact bats in the NL. Wrigley Field can be an offensive environment when the wind blows out. The lineup edge is real. The pitching gap cuts the other direction.
Cease with a 2.42 FIP against an Imanaga who has posted a 5.19 FIP over his last three starts. Toronto's bullpen is 1.46 FIP points cleaner than Chicago's. The Cubs have the better lineup, but Wrigley's lineup edge doesn't close a gap this wide in the rotation.
Blue Jays.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -125
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -125
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