Published Jun 2, 9:39pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 2, 9:39pm ET
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Updated Jun 2, 9:39pm ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -195 |
| San Diego Padres | +175 |
Walker Buehler is never going to regain the dominance he showed early in his career with the Dodgers before Tommy John surgery derailed him. In his last full season before surgery, he had a 7.1 bWAR and finished 4th in the NL Cy Young Award voting.
Since returning, he has not been the same pitcher and is now a journeyman pitching for his fourth team since 2024. He's been useful enough for the Padres with a 0.2 bWAR in 11 starts. He's posted a 4.88 ERA. In 51.2 innings, he's allowed 50 hits and 28 earned runs, walking 18 and striking out 43.
At the plate, Fernando Tatis finally hit his first homer of the season over the weekend. His OPS is still below .700. Manny Machado's batting average is below .200, but he has double-digits in home runs. Xander Bogaerts has slowed down after a hot start and his OPS is now below .700. Jackson Merrill is barely above .200.
Against Cristopher Sanchez, Freddy Fermin is 2 for 4 with 2 homers. Tatis is 7 for 14 with a home run. Machado is 3 for 14 with 3 singles. Bogaerts is 4 for 11 with 4 singles. Miguel Andujar is 4 for 9 with 4 singles.
As unbelievable as it is, Cristopher Sanchez is making a legitimate run at Orel Hershiser's MLB record 59 straight scoreless innings. Philly's lefty has not allowed a run in 44.2 innings. His bWAR is at 4.3. This comes on the heels of 2025, when he led MLB pitchers in bWAR at 8.1 and finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young Award voting. His ERA is an MLB-leading 1.47. He's struck out 95 in 79.1 innings, allowed 73 hits, 13 earned runs, walking 16.
At the plate, Kyle Schwarber leads the majors in home runs. Bryce Harper's OPS is approaching .900. Trea Turner has an OPS of below .630. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott continue to struggle with averages in the low .200s. Brandon Marsh is having an All-Star season with a batting average above .330.
For the Phillies against Buehler, Adolis Garcia is 2 for 10 with a double and a home run. Harper is 4 for 8 with 3 doubles and a home run. Marsh is 2 for 4 with 2 singles. J.T. Realmuto is 3 for 17 with 3 singles. Schwarber is 3 for 13 with a home run. Turner is 0 for 18. Bohm is 3 for 5 with 3 singles.
Given how unhittable Sanchez has been, there are two ways of looking at this start:
San Diego has not hit very well this season and Buehler is eminently hittable.
The Phillies should take this one at home, with the lingering question of whether Sanchez will maintain his mastery. It will be a great story if he does.
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+104)
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