Published Jun 2, 7:04pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 2, 7:04pm ET
Updated Jun 2, 7:04pm ET
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| Milwaukee Brewers | -156 |
| San Francisco Giants | +129 |
Logan Webb finished second, sixth, and fourth in NL Cy Young voting over the last three years. He is one of the more decorated starters in the National League. This season, he is 2-4 with a 4.82 ERA and a 3.52 FIP. The FIP says the underlying quality is better than the ERA shows, which is consistent with a pitcher who can locate and generate soft contact when his mechanics are right.
The problem is the Giants are not putting wins behind him. They went 10-18 in May. The Brewers beat them 16-2 in one of those games. San Francisco's offense has been inconsistent enough that even a quality Webb start frequently does not lead to a win.
Masyn Winn and JJ Wetherholt anchor Milwaukee's lineup and have been productive in June. They will make Webb work for every out.
Chad Patrick is 2-2 with a 2.60 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. He has 33 strikeouts in 45 innings. Those numbers from a pitcher who entered the season without many expectations are legitimately impressive. The FIP says the ERA is not luck — he is generating weak contact at a rate that supports it.
San Francisco is hitting well below the league average as a team and has not been able to score against quality opposition. Patrick is not a marquee name, but the results have matched a pitcher who gives Milwaukee a genuine advantage on the mound most nights.
Webb's FIP says he has been better than his ERA looks. Patrick's FIP says his ERA is real. That combination puts Milwaukee ahead in the pitching matchup, and the Brewers are at home at 36-21 against a Giants team that has lost nine of eleven.
The records make the game. Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -156
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -156
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