David Peterson's ERA is 5.40. His FIP is 3.01. That is a gap of nearly two and a half runs, and it tells the story of a pitcher who has been getting results far worse than his underlying contact numbers deserve. He has been generating outs and limiting hard contact at a rate that should produce a significantly lower ERA, but the damage has accumulated through sequencing and strand rates that have consistently broken against him. Peterson is not a 5.40 ERA pitcher. He is closer to the FIP.

Braydon Fisher is not a name that generates attention in the American League East, but his FIP is 3.68 and his numbers have been consistent all season. He works efficiently, commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, and has not had the blow-up start that derails a pitcher's ERA in a single outing. Toronto has asked him to be reliable mid-rotation depth, and he has been exactly that. Against the Yankees' lineup, which is the most dangerous part of tonight's equation, Fisher needs to work ahead in counts and keep the ball out of the air at Yankee Stadium.

Spencer Strider is 2.45 ERA since his return from the oblique strain, and the results have been everything Atlanta needed when they activated him. He strikes out batters at a rate that belongs in the top percentile of the league, and his velocity has held up through multiple outings since returning. The FIP is 3.63, which runs about 1.18 runs above his ERA — not a disqualifying gap, but enough to indicate that strand rates and sequencing have been working in his favor alongside the genuine quality in his starts.

The Pirates need to get back on track after a recent tough stretch. They had a solid start after spending some money over the winter to bolster a solid, young starting rotation. But with perpetual losers like the Pirates, there's a lingering fear they will come undone and plummet back into last place.

Every season, the Guardians find a way to stay in contention no matter what challenges they face. After a mediocre start, they've gotten hot in May and vaulted to 1st place in the AL Central.

Jack Leiter's FIP is 4.42. His ERA has been worse than that, meaning he has pitched to better underlying contact numbers than the box scores have captured. At Coors Field that matters more than at most parks — altitude inflates everything, from batting averages to ERA to raw run totals, and a pitcher who has been getting unlucky with balls in play will find some of that bad luck amplified in Denver. Leiter will give up runs tonight. Every pitcher at Coors gives up runs. The question is whether it is manageable enough for Texas to win.

Kyle Harrison is 2.09 ERA with a 2.92 FIP, and both numbers belong to the same pitcher. The FIP is a full run higher than the ERA, which means there is a modest luck element in the results — but a 2.92 FIP is still elite territory, and Harrison has earned the reputation he has built this season. He strikes out batters at a high rate, keeps the ball in the park, and gives Milwaukee six or seven innings on a consistent basis. The Cubs are getting the better arm tonight by the numbers that matter most.

Blue Jays' righty Trey Yesavage had a star turn in the 2025 postseason, going 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA in 6 games (5 starts), allowing 18 hits and 11 earned runs in 27.2 innings. Toronto is being cautious with him and he's making his 5th start this season. He has a 1.40 ERA and a 1.0 bWAR. In 19.1 innings, he's allowed 17 hits and 3 earned runs, walking 8 and striking out 21.

Injuries sabotaged the end of Chris Sale's time with the Red Sox. Boston dumped his salary on the Braves and they have benefited from a rejuvenated star. He won the NL Cy Young Award in his first season in 2024, had a 4.0 bWAR before getting hurt in 2025, and now has a 1.96 ERA in 9 starts this season.

Dylan Cease has a FIP of 1.91. That is not a misprint and it is not a fluke. His strikeout rate is elite, his walk rate has dropped from the levels that used to concern scouts, and hitters are not making hard contact against him at any meaningful rate. He has been the best pitcher on the Blue Jays since April, and the number reflects it. On paper, Toronto is sending the better starting pitcher into Yankee Stadium tonight, and that is genuinely true.

Martín Pérez is sitting at a 2.25 ERA. His FIP is 4.12. That is a gap of nearly two full runs, which means his results have run well ahead of what the batted ball data says his stuff has warranted. He has been the beneficiary of well-timed outs, a defense that has converted hard contact at a high rate, and innings that ended before the damage accumulated the way it should have.

Cleveland is 7-3 in their last ten. Parker Messick has been a significant part of why. His ERA is 2.35 and his FIP is 3.04, which means the results and the underlying stuff are telling the same story — not the same number, but the same direction. He has not needed a defense bailing him out of hard contact or strand rates running his way. He misses bats, limits walks, and has given the Guardians length in starts where the bullpen needed a break. Tonight he takes the ball against a Tigers team that has dropped eight of their last ten and is looking for something to change.