Published May 21, 5:46am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 21, 5:46am ET
Updated May 21, 5:46am ET
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| Miami Marlins | +119 |
| Atlanta Braves | -143 |
Spencer Strider is 2.45 ERA since his return from the oblique strain, and the results have been everything Atlanta needed when they activated him. He strikes out batters at a rate that belongs in the top percentile of the league, and his velocity has held up through multiple outings since returning. The FIP is 3.63, which runs about 1.18 runs above his ERA — not a disqualifying gap, but enough to indicate that strand rates and sequencing have been working in his favor alongside the genuine quality in his starts.
Atlanta has the lineup and the form edge in this series, which is why the market makes them -143. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have been productive in the middle of the order, and the Braves are a team capable of scoring three or four runs in a game where the opposing pitcher is working cleanly. Strider just needs to stay in the game long enough for that to happen.
Sandy Alcantara's ERA is 3.53. His FIP is 3.54. One cent of difference. That level of alignment tells you everything about what Alcantara's starts have looked like this season. He has been getting results in line with exactly what his stuff deserves, no luck in either direction. He limits hard contact, works into the seventh inning, and has been the most reliable pitcher on Miami's staff since returning from his own health issues earlier in the year. When ERA and FIP sit this close together, the performance is real.
Miami's lineup is the honest counterargument to this pick. At .705 OPS, the Marlins have not been scoring runs at the rate a team needs to take down a pitcher like Strider regularly. James Wood has been their most consistent producer, and the lineup has individual contributors capable of putting together a good inning. But against a Braves staff that will have the bullpen available, Miami needs Alcantara to give them quality length and hope the lineup finds a way.
Strider at 2.45 ERA has been good. Alcantara at 3.53 ERA with a nearly identical FIP has been just as trustworthy, without the luck element. Getting Miami at +119 with the more authentic arm going and Alcantara pitching to exactly who his metrics say he is, that is the value tonight.
Pick: Miami Marlins +119
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Pick
Miami Marlins +119
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