Published May 19, 8:06am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 19, 8:06am ET
Updated May 19, 8:06am ET
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| Miami Marlins | +119 |
| Atlanta Braves | -143 |
Martín Pérez is sitting at a 2.25 ERA. His FIP is 4.12. That is a gap of nearly two full runs, which means his results have run well ahead of what the batted ball data says his stuff has warranted. He has been the beneficiary of well-timed outs, a defense that has converted hard contact at a high rate, and innings that ended before the damage accumulated the way it should have.
The Braves lineup at .764 OPS is the more reliable source of production in this game. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have been the core of that offense all season, and Ozzie Albies gives Atlanta the switch-hitting depth that forces Miami's pitching to adjust on both sides of the plate. When Pérez pitches to something closer to his actual level tonight, the lineup behind him needs to be the thing that holds the lead.
Braxton Garrett has a 6.30 ERA. His FIP is 4.35. That gap goes the other direction. He has been pitching better than his results suggest, with hard contact producing more damage than his underlying numbers would have predicted. A 4.35 FIP is a workable number. It is not a good number, but it does not belong next to 6.30 on a scorecard. Garrett has been one of those pitchers whose bad outings came at the worst possible times and inflated a surface number that overstates his current struggles.
Miami's lineup at .705 OPS is a step below what Atlanta brings. The Marlins have individual contributors. James Wood has been productive when healthy, but building a multi-run inning against a left-hander with Garrett's strike-throwing ability requires the whole order to click. Against a Braves pitching staff that will have the bullpen available if Pérez exits early, Miami needs to make their chances count.
Both ERA-FIP stories run in opposite directions tonight. Pérez has been lucky; Garrett has been unlucky. Strip out the noise, and Atlanta still has the better lineup by nearly 60 OPS points. When everything else is uncertain, the lineup edge wins the argument. We expect Atlanta to win.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -143
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -143
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