Published May 18, 8:54pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 18, 8:54pm ET
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Updated May 18, 8:54pm ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -136 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +123 |
Chase Burns has emerged as one of the top pitchers in MLB two years after being drafted 2nd overall out of Wake Forest.
The 23-year-old righty has made 9 starts and has a 2.5 bWAR. In 53 innings, he's allowed 35 hits and 11 earned runs, walking 18 and striking out 55.
The Reds have been painfully streaky. If they want to make the playoffs, it goes without saying that they need to find some consistency.
Elly De La Cruz has an OPS approaching .900 and double-digits in home runs. Sal Stewart's OPS is nearly .800. He too is hitting with pop. Spencer Steer has been hitting well of late and his OPS is approaching .800. JJ Bleday has been a revelation with power and a slugging percentage hovering around .650.
Their bullpen has been generally terrible, accounting for many of their recent losses.
Against Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, De La Cruz is 1 for 2, as is TJ Friedl. Both hits are singles. Ke'Bryan Hayes is 1 for 5 with a double. P.J. Higgins is 1 for 2 with a double. Steer is 1 for 1 with a double and a walk. Tyler Stephenson is 2 for 4 with 2 singles.
Jesus Luzardo's ERA is at 5.07. which is a noticeable decline from where it was in mid-April at 7.94. The lefty has either been very good or very bad this season. It's a dramatic fall from his 2025 performance when he had a 3.7 bWAR and was 7th in the National League Cy Young Award voting.
This season, he has had games in which he allowed 6, 5, 8, and 5 earned runs. However, against the Red Sox in his last start, he pitched 6 shutout innings.
Overall, he's thrown 49.2 innings, allowed 53 hits and 28 earned runs with 13 walks and 61 K's.
At the plate, the Phillies have come alive since Don Mattingly took over as manager. Kyle Schwarber is leading the NL in home runs. Bryce Harper has been hot and his OPS is above .920. Brandon Marsh has an OPS above .800. Bryson Stott, Adolis Garcia, and Alec Bohm are still stumbling along.
Against Burns, only Trea Turner has recorded a hit, a single. Bohm and Harper are both 0 for 2 against him. Each has struck out once. Schwarber is 0 for 1 with a walk and a strikeout.
Luzardo is a completely unknown entity at this point. Will he be good or bad? If he's good, he's very good. If he's bad, he's atrocious.
Burns, on the other hand, has been brilliant all season and is an early frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award. The Reds have had some success against Luzardo. Cincinnati will take this one behind its young ace.
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Cincinnati Reds +123
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