Published May 19, 8:12am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 19, 8:12am ET
Updated May 19, 8:12am ET
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| New York Yankees | -143 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +118 |
Dylan Cease has a FIP of 1.91. That is not a misprint and it is not a fluke. His strikeout rate is elite, his walk rate has dropped from the levels that used to concern scouts, and hitters are not making hard contact against him at any meaningful rate. He has been the best pitcher on the Blue Jays since April, and the number reflects it. On paper, Toronto is sending the better starting pitcher into Yankee Stadium tonight, and that is genuinely true.
The Blue Jays lineup at .679 OPS has not given Cease the run support his ERA deserves, which is why the record does not fully capture what he has been doing. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains one of the more dangerous hitters in the order when he is locked in, and the lineup has enough depth to make New York work in multiple innings.
Will Warren's ERA and FIP are in line with each other. His FIP is 3.13, and the ERA tracks it closely enough that there is no story to tell about luck or defense. He has been a reliable mid-rotation starter who works efficiently, limits free passes, and gives the Yankees the innings they need to keep the bullpen manageable. He is not going to neutralize what Cease has been doing on the other side, but he does not need to. His job is to keep the game close long enough for the lineup to win it.
New York's lineup at .766 OPS is where the advantage lives in this game. Aaron Judge has been one of the most productive hitters in the league all season. Ben Rice has become one of the most dangerous bats in the American League, and the Yankees have the middle-of-the-order depth to score multiple runs off a pitcher who is not quite at Cease's level. The 87-point OPS gap between these two lineups is what the -143 price is pricing in, and it is a real gap.
Cease's FIP is 1.91 and that is the honest counterargument to this pick. It deserves to be named. But Warren is clean at 3.13, the Yankees have one of the larger lineup edges on the board tonight, and Yankee Stadium at home gives New York the environment where this kind of advantage compounds. When the pitching gap is real and the lineup gap runs the other direction, the lineup has to be substantial enough to overcome it. At 87 OPS points, it is.
Pick: New York Yankees -143
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Pick
New York Yankees -143
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