Published Jun 23, 9:02pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 23, 9:02pm ET
Updated Jun 23, 9:02pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | +118 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -145 |
Shane Drohan is 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA. His FIP of 3.21 sits below the surface ERA, which means the underlying contact quality has been even cleaner than the results suggest. His FIP over his last three starts is 3.95; a slight tick above his season baseline but still a workable number against a Cincinnati lineup that has been inconsistent this month. Drohan works off a fastball-changeup combination that generates weak contact on the ground, and he has kept opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Milwaukee is 47-29 and has won six of its last ten. Christian Yelich and William Contreras anchor a .726 OPS lineup that has been one of the more productive offensive units in the NL. Their bullpen FIP of 3.83 is the more reliable backend unit in this game, holding a 1.32-point edge over Cincinnati's 5.15.
Rhett Lowder is 3-4 with a 4.82 ERA. His FIP of 4.51 already indicated some underlying concern, and his last three starts have been significantly worse: a 6.36 FIP that reflects a pitcher who has been allowing hard contact in every recent outing. He has given up four or more earned runs in two of his last three starts. Lowder has the stuff to get through lineups on better nights; his changeup can be a swing-and-miss pitch when his release point holds — but the recent trend is working against him.
Cincinnati is 37-40 and 5-5 in its last ten. Tyler Stephenson and Elly De La Cruz give the Reds their most productive lineup options at a .696 OPS. Their bullpen FIP of 5.15 is the weaker backend unit in this game, which limits the margin for error if Lowder exits early.
Drohan with a 3.21 FIP against a Lowder who has posted a 6.36 over his last three starts. Milwaukee holds the pitching edge, the lineup edge, and the bullpen edge. Every signal points the same direction, and the market price is fair for the gap.
Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -145
|
Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -145
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
