Published Jun 23, 9:08pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 23, 9:08pm ET
Updated Jun 23, 9:08pm ET
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| Minnesota Twins | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -165 |
Shohei Ohtani is 7-2 with a 1.47 ERA. He earned the win against the Rays on June 17, pitched six scoreless innings in San Francisco in April, and seven innings against the Astros in May. His FIP of 2.70 tracks with a pitcher generating elite contact suppression, and his last-three FIP of 3.15 shows a slight cooling from his early-season peak without suggesting any real decline. Ohtani works off a fastball-splitter combination that generates chases below the zone, and his strikeout rate has been among the best in the NL all season.
Los Angeles is 50-29 and has won six of its last ten. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ohtani himself give the Dodgers a .778 OPS lineup that ranks among the best offensive units in baseball. Their bullpen FIP of 3.45 with a 27.7% strikeout rate is the deeper backend in this game by a clear margin.
Connor Prielipp is 2-5 with a 5.17 ERA. The left-hander has shown flashes of the stuff that made him a high-ceiling prospect, a fastball with above-average spin, a developing changeup, but the ERA reflects a starter who has been hittable across a full half-season sample. His results have been better than expected in some outings and well below average in others, with no consistent trend emerging. He'll need everything working at once to contain a Dodgers lineup this deep.
Minnesota is 38-42 and has won seven of its last ten — the hotter team by recent form in this matchup. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa anchor the Twins' .731 OPS lineup, and Target Field gives Minnesota a home advantage in a fair offensive environment. The Twins can win this game if Prielipp finds his best stuff and the offense generates early runs.
Ohtani at 1.47 ERA against a Prielipp who has given up runs at an unsustainable rate this season. Los Angeles holds the pitching edge, the lineup edge, and the bullpen edge. Minnesota's recent form is the one headwind.
Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -165
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -165
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