Published Jun 22, 5:25pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 22, 5:25pm ET
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Updated Jun 22, 5:26pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | +104 |
| Seattle Mariners | -115 |
George Kirby has long been one of the most intriguing talents in MLB. He's been durable and reliable. But there are times when he's hittable. He's something of an enigma in that he surrenders a lot of hits, doesn't walk many hitters, and doesn't surrender many homers.
For the season, he has a 0.8 bWAR and a 4.10 ERA. In 15 starts, he's tossed 90 innings, allowed 97 hits, 41 earned runs, and 9 home runs. He's walked 21 and struck out 79. His last two starts were against the Orioles and he tossed a combined 12 innings, allowed 15 hits, and allowed 6 earned runs, walking 3 and striking out 15.
Cal Raleigh is having a disastrous season after his record-breaking 2025. He's batting .162 with 7 homers. The M's in general have been poor offensively with only J.P. Crawford, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley, and Dominic Canzone with an OPS above .736. Raley and Rodriguez are tied for the team lead in home runs with 14.
Against Mitch Keller, Crawford is 3 for 6 with a home run. Josh Naylor is 3 for 8 with a home run. Rodriguez is 2 for 3 with a home run. Raleigh is 2 for 3 with 2 doubles. Raley is 1 for 4 with a single.
Mitch Keller was supposed to be the #2 starter behind Paul Skenes. Early in the season, he was fulfilling that role. Since May 30, however, he's been terrible. In four starts, he has allowed 19 earned runs in 18 innings. His last start against the Athletics looks slightly better because he only 1 of the 5 runs he allowed was earned. Still, he walked 4. Free passes have been a problem for him all season.
Overall, he has a 0.1 bWAR and a 4.92 ERA. In 82.1 innings, he's surrendered 78 hits, 45 earned runs, and 7 homers, walking 31 and striking out 65.
The Pirates are at .500, but are within striking distance of a playoff spot. They will need Keller to perform if they're going to make a run.
Pittsburgh's offense is coming along. Brandon Lowe leads the team in home runs with 18 and has an OPS of .834. Spencer Horwitz has 10 homers and an .851 OPS. Bryan Reynolds has an .884 OPS and 11 homers. Oneil Cruz is on the injured list with hand fractures.
For the Pirates against Kirby, Ryan O'Hearn is 4 for 14 with a home run. Horwitz is 2 for 6 with 2 singles. Lowe is 1 for 7 with a single. Reynolds is 1 for 8 with a triple. Marcell Ozuna is 1 for 3 with a single.
Both teams are hovering around .500 and need to string together some wins. The Mariners are in 1st place in the mediocre AL West, while the Pirates are 8.5 games out of 1st place in the NL Central.
Kirby has pitched reasonably well lately. Keller is trying to get back on his game.
The teams are relatively evenly matched, so this matchup will likely come down to which starting pitcher puts in the better performance. Given how Kirby and Keller have pitched recently, that leans toward Kirby and the M's.
Seattle will take the 1st game of the series in Pittsburgh.
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Seattle Mariners -115
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