Published Jun 19, 9:10pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 19, 9:10pm ET
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Updated Jun 19, 9:10pm ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -172 |
| New York Mets | +155 |
Freddy Peralta has been objectively mediocre at best this season, but in his last start, he had a good rebound game against the Braves after getting bashed around by the Cardinals in his prior start.
Against Atlanta, he threw 5 innings, allowed 4 hits, and 1 earned run. He walked 1 and struck out 2.
For the season, his numbers are respectable enough, but not for a would-be ace. In 15 starts, he has a 1.0 bWAR and a 3.90 ERA. He's tossed 83 innings, allowed 75 hits, given up 36 earned runs and 10 homers, walking 33 and striking out 81.
At the plate, Juan Soto is getting hot again. He now has a 2.3 bWAR, 17 homers, and leads the NL with a .582 slugging percentage and a .980 OPS. The rest of the Mets' lineup remains shaky. Carson Benge is coming into his own with a .701 OPS and 7 homers. But Mark Vientos, Marcus Semien, and Brett Baty are struggling. Bo Bichette's average is creeping up and he's now hitting .250 with 8 homers.
For New York against Cristopher Sanchez, Vientos is 5 for 15 with 4 doubles and a home run. Eric Wagaman is 2 for 8 with a double. Soto is 5 for 14 with a double. Luis Torrens is 1 for 8 with a double.
Cristopher Sanchez had a run of 50.2 scoreless innings earlier this season. He's emerged as one of MLB's best pitchers and a Cy Young Award favorite. However, in his last start against the Brewers, he allowed 4 earned runs and 8 hits in 5.2 innings.
Still, for the season, his numbers are otherworldly. He has an MLB-leading 5.0 bWAR a year after he also led the majors in bWAR at 8.1 and finished 2nd in the NL CYA voting. In 15 starts, he has a 1.82 ERA. In 99 innings, he's allowed 89 hits and 20 earned runs, walking 19 and striking out 116.
Kyle Schwarber is leading the majors in home runs with 25. Bryce Harper has 15 homers and an .837 OPS. J.T. Realmuto is batting .202. Bryson Stott has been hitting better recently and his average is up to .236. Brandon Marsh continues his career season, batting .317 with an .844 OPS.
Philly has shown power against Peralta in the past. Alec Bohm is 1 for 9 with a home run. Harper is 3 for 14 with 2 homers. Schwarber is 3 for 15 with a double and 2 home runs. Trea Turner is 1 for 16 with a home run. Marsh is 0 for 6 with 4 K's.
The Mets have had moderate success against Sanchez. The Phillies have hit the ball over the wall consistently against Peralta. Both teams have been inconsistent at the plate, but New York, apart from Soto, has been generally bad. Are they going to be able to hit Sanchez?
The overwhelming likelihood is that they won't, but perhaps they can keep it within 1 run. In the end, that is the most plausible alternative is, with a little luck, the Amazins could win it outright.
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Pick
New York Mets +1.5 (-145)
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