Published Jun 18, 8:01pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 18, 8:01pm ET
Updated Jun 18, 8:11pm ET
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| New York Yankees | -250 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +200 |
Rhett Lowder is 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA. The 24-year-old right-hander has the stuff to compete at this level, a solid fastball-changeup combination that generated strikeouts earlier in the season. His last three starts have been a different story. His FIP over that stretch is 6.84, nearly three full runs above his season baseline, reflecting a stretch where hitters have been making consistent hard contact and working counts deep. Cincinnati is 35-38 overall and 4-6 in its last ten games, providing limited run-support cushion when Lowder runs into trouble.
Tyler Stephenson and Elly De La Cruz give the Reds their best run-producing options. Their bullpen FIP of 5.27 is the weaker backend unit in this game, providing limited coverage if Lowder exits early in the Bronx.
Cam Schlittler is 11-5 with a 1.82 ERA. He struck out eight Texas Rangers batters on April 28 and has not had consecutive bad starts at any point in 2026. His FIP of 2.36 sits close enough to the ERA to confirm this is not a luck-driven number. His last-three FIP of 3.97 shows some cooling from his dominant early-season form, but 3.97 against a Reds lineup hitting .707 OPS is a workable number for a pitcher of his caliber.
New York is 45-27 and has won eight of its last ten games. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice anchor a .775 OPS lineup that has been one of the more productive offensive units in the AL. The Yankees' bullpen FIP of 3.62 with a 23.9% strikeout rate is the sharper backend unit, holding a 1.65-point FIP edge over Cincinnati's 5.27.
Schlittler at home against a Lowder who has posted a 6.84 FIP over his last three starts. New York holds the ERA edge, the FIP edge, the lineup edge, the bullpen edge, and the form edge.
Yankees.
Pick: New York Yankees -250
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Pick
New York Yankees -250
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