Published Jun 18, 3:32pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 18, 3:32pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 18, 3:32pm ET
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| Texas Rangers | -145 |
| San Diego Padres | +131 |
Jacob deGrom is no longer the dominating arm he once was, but he's still plenty good when he's healthy. However, he's more hittable than he was in the past and his poor month of May showed that. In 5 starts, he posted a 5.72 ERA and had two atrocious starts against the Yankees and Angels, respectively, in which he allowed 12 earned runs in 9.1 innings.
He's been closer to form in June, with 2 starts in which he didn't allow a run and 1 start against the Red Sox when he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings. For the season, he has a 1.7 bWAR and a 3.17 ERA. In 76.2 frames, he's allowed 61 hits and 27 earned runs, walking 15 and striking out 89.
The Rangers are below .500, but they're near the top of the mediocre AL West. Apart from Josh Jung, Joc Pederson, and Jake Burger, their offense has been underwhelming. Several key players are on the injured list, including Corey Seager, Danny Jansen, and Evan Carter.
Against Randy Vasquez, Pederson is 2 for 8 with a home run. Burger is 1 for 5 with a double. No other Rangers batter has a hit.
The Padres' starting rotation has been shaky at best apart from Michael King and Randy Vasquez. Since their hot start as a team, they've stumbled badly, only a few games above .500 and far behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
Vasquez has been consistently providing San Diego with at least 4-5 innings and keeping them in games. For the season, he has a 1.3 bWAR and a 3.63 ERA. In 74.1 innings, he's allowed 76 hits, 30 earned runs, and 11 homers, walking 22 and striking out 58.
The Padres' offense has been popgun this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. finally broke out of his home run drought, but his power is still nowhere near what they need. Xander Bogaerts is hitting in the .220s. Jackson Merrill is lower than that. Manny Machado is below .200.
There has been recent talk about what head of baseball ops A.J. Preller will do at the MLB trade deadline to "go for it." Of course, it makes zero sense to do so, but that's never stopped Preller from trying to get his name mentioned as much as possible and to achieve nothing in October.
For the Padres against deGrom, Machado is 6 for 23, all singles. He's K'd 9 times. Tatis is 1 for 7 with a double and 3 K's. Bogaerts is 1 for 6 with a double. Ty France is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
As poorly as the Padres have been hitting, if deGrom is on his game, this should be a mismatch. No San Diego hitter has had much success against the Rangers' righty. Vasquez has been solid this year and Texas hasn't lit the world on fire with its offense.
When all is said and done here, the Rangers will come out on top behind a resurgent deGrom and take the victory.
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Texas Rangers -145
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