Published Jun 17, 3:08pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 17, 3:08pm ET
Updated Jun 17, 3:14pm ET
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| Seattle Mariners | -163 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +132 |
Shane Baz is 4-6 with a 3.95 ERA. He has been through a difficult stretch this season; the 4-6 record reflects a rotation that has had to carry inconsistent outings, but his last three starts have been cleaner. His last-three FIP of 3.77 sits below his season baseline of 4.06, which means the contact quality against him has improved, and the walks have come down. Baz has a fastball-curveball combination that generates whiffs when his command holds. He has given up two or fewer earned runs in two of his last three outings.
Baltimore is 34-40 and has won just three of its last ten games. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander anchor the Orioles lineup at .723 OPS, which is the stronger offensive unit on paper in this matchup. The problem has been converting that lineup potential into wins; Baltimore has been cold as a team regardless of individual output.
Bryan Woo is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA. The 2025 All-Star has been steady rather than dominant this season: a 4.02 FIP that tracks closely with his ERA, and a last-three FIP of 3.67 that shows no significant hot or cold trend. Woo generates ground balls, limits walks, and has been particularly effective at T-Mobile Park, where the park's pitcher-friendly dimensions play to his sinker-heavy approach. His consistency is his value — he doesn't blow lineups away, but he rarely blows up games either.
Seattle is 38-36 and has won five of its last ten. Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh give the Mariners two of the more reliable run producers in the AL West. Their bullpen FIP of 3.60 is the sharper backend unit, holding a 0.14 FIP edge over Baltimore's 3.74.
Woo at home in a pitcher-friendly park against a Baltimore team that has won three of ten. Seattle holds the form edge and the bullpen edge. Baz has improved recently but remains the secondary arm in this matchup.
Mariners.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -163
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Pick
Seattle Mariners -163
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