Published Jun 18, 8:05pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 18, 8:05pm ET
Updated Jun 18, 8:05pm ET
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| Colorado Rockies | +118 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -131 |
Bubba Chandler is 2-7 with a 4.76 ERA. The 22-year-old right-hander has been inconsistent in his first extended look as a major league starter, but his last three starts have been his best stretch of the season. His last-three FIP of 3.34 sits more than a full run below his season baseline, reflecting improved command and fewer walks over that stretch. He held the Cubs to one run in six innings on June 8 and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last three outings.
Pittsburgh is 38-37 overall and 4-6 in its last ten games, neutral recent form. The Pirates carry a .745 OPS lineup into Coors Field, and Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen give Pittsburgh their two most reliable run-producing options. Their bullpen FIP of 4.22 with a 23.8% strikeout rate holds an edge over Colorado's 4.75.
A note on the park: Coors Field inflates every offensive number. Run totals and ERA figures for both teams should be read with altitude context in mind. The pick here is based on the pitching gap and bullpen edge, not on trusting ERA at face value in Denver.
Kyle Freeland is 2-8 with a 7.98 ERA. Even adjusting for Coors Field, those numbers are difficult to work around. His FIP of 5.66 is a more park-adjusted baseline, but 5.66 is still an ugly mark against a Pittsburgh lineup that should score runs at altitude. His last-three FIP of 3.88 suggests some recent correction, but the season-long body of work reflects a starter who has been consistently hittable. The Dodgers scored 15 runs off him in a recent blowout, and Colorado has dropped eight of its last ten games.
Colorado is 28-47 and has the worst record in the NL. Their lineup carries a .732 OPS, slightly below Pittsburgh's .745. The Rockies' bullpen FIP of 4.75 is the weaker backend unit in this game.
Chandler in his best recent form against a Freeland who has allowed 15 runs in a single outing this season. Pittsburgh holds the pitching edge and the bullpen edge. .
Pirates.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -131
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Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates -131
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