Published Jun 19, 8:24pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 19, 8:24pm ET
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Updated Jun 19, 8:24pm ET
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| Chicago Cubs | -120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +109 |
Early in the season, lefty Patrick Corbin appeared to be having a solid comeback season after a rapid career decline in the past five years. His ERA at the end of May was 3.65. In June, however, he's reverted to an eminently hittable journeyman pitcher bouncing around several MLB teams.
In three starts, he's allowed 11 earned runs in 12.2 innings against the Braves, Phillies, and Yankees. For the season, he has a 4.57 ERA and a 0.8 bWAR. In 61 frames, he's allowed 70 hits and 31 earned runs, walking 20 and striking out 43. One positive is that he's only allowed 7 homers.
The Blue Jays' bats woke up in a sweep in Boston at midweek. But in the first game of the Cubs series, they got obliterated 16-2. Still, Kazuma Okamoto leads the team with 15 homers. George Springer has been hot lately. His average is up to .223 and has 8 homers. Ernie Clement is having an All-Star season with a .294 average and a .756 OPS. Brandon Valenzuela has an .805 OPS.
For the Jays against Colin Rea, Alejandro Kirk is 1 for 2 with a home run. Jesus Sanchez is 2 for 4 with 2 singles. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0 for 3. Springer is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
Colin Rea has been up and down this entire season, but in his last two starts, it's been a tough go. He's allowed 11 earned runs in 9.1 innings against the Rockies and Giants. Overall, he's got a -0.8 bWAR and a 5.35 ERA. In 15 appearances (11 starts) and 74 innings, he's allowed 80 hits and 44 earned runs, walking 28 and striking out 56. He's allowed 12 homers.
The Cubs are 40-36 after a good start and are fading in the NL Central with the Brewers slowly pulling away.
Ian Happ leads the Cubs in home runs with 16, but is batting .228 and has already struck out 100 times. Pete Crow-Armstrong has 16 homers and an .869 OPS with 18 stolen bases in 23 attempts. Seiya Suzuki is at .805 with 10 homers. Dansby Swanson is still below .200. Moises Ballesteros got off to a blazing start, but was just sent to the minors. Alex Bregman is batting .250 with a .693 OPS and 6 homers.
Against Corbin, Michael Conforto has been a machine with 12 hits in 36 at-bats, 2 doubles and 5 home runs. Happ is 6 for 19 with a double and a home run. Nico Hoerner is 5 for 14 with a double. Carson Kelly is 4 for 7 with a double and a home run. Suzuki is 6 for 12 with 2 home runs. Swanson is 12 for 43 with 2 doubles and 2 homers.
While neither starting pitcher has performed well of late, the Cubs have routinely bashed Corbin with several of their hitters putting up video game numbers against him. Add in that the Jays have been inconsistent at the plate and it adds up to an easy win for the Cubs. They will hit Corbin hard and win the game going away.
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Chicago Cubs -120
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