Published Jun 18, 4:07pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 18, 4:07pm ET
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Updated Jun 18, 4:07pm ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -180 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +162 |
The Orioles are still trying to gain some consistency, reach .500, and get into legitimate playoff contention.
As they head to Los Angeles to play the MLB frontrunning Dodgers, they start rookie righty Trey Gibson.
Gibson is coming off his season-worst start. The Padres beat him up for 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings. He walked 5 and allowed 2 homers. For the season, he has a -0.1 bWAR and a 5.91 ERA. In 21.1 innings, he's allowed 21 hits and 14 earned runs, walking 13 and striking out 12.
The Orioles have some pop at the plate with Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson vying for the team lead in homers. Coby Mayo is batting under .200, but is on the verge of reaching double-digits in home runs. Tyler O'Neill is also hitting well below .200 with almost no power.
The only Orioles batter who's faced Roki Sasaki in the majors is Leody Taveras. He's 0 for 2.
Although Roki Sasaki was brilliant in the 2025 postseason out of the bullpen, the Dodgers are invested and committed to making him a starting pitcher. He's been up and down, but he's improving in real time, particularly with his control. They have multiple injuries in their rotation, so they need Sasaki to perform.
Still, the White Sox knocked him around in his last start. In 4.1 innings, he allowed 7 hits and 7 earned runs, walking 3 and striking out 4. For the season, he has a -0.1 bWAR and a 4.76 ERA. Over 62.1 frames, he's allowed 59 hits and 33 earned runs. He's given up 11 homers, walked 24, and struck out 64.
At the plate, the Dodgers thrive on home runs. Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy are all in double-digits. Mookie Betts continues to struggle with a batting average hovering around .200. Kyle Tucker has been better lately, but is still hitting in the .240s.
No Dodgers batter has ever faced Gibson in the big leagues.
The obvious pick here is the Dodgers. However, Sasaki has been inconsistent and is coming off an awful start that might again set him back. The Orioles have not hit as well as expected and Gibson is still a struggling rookie.
However, this is the type of game where the Orioles will hit a few balls out of the park after making Sasaki throw the ball in the strike zone in hittable areas due to a lack of command. Baltimore will take the upset in LA and beat Sasaki and the Dodgers.
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Pick
Baltimore Orioles +162
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