Published Jun 7, 9:31pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 7, 9:31pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 7, 9:31pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | +107 |
| Houston Astros | -118 |
Spencer Arrighetti was a 6th-round pick of the Astros in the 2021 MLB Draft. In his first full season in the majors, he had a 4.53 ERA in 145 innings. In his second season, he was 1-5 in 7 starts with a 5.35 ERA.
This year, however, he's got a 1.9 bWAR and a 1.94 ERA. He's made 9 starts and tossed 51 innings, allowed 33 hits and 11 earned runs, walking 27 and striking out 46. The walks are concerning, but he's only allowed 3 homers.
Houston is 30-37, but still has a chance to get back into playoff contention.
Yordan Alvarez has heated up again after a brief slump. He's got a 1.081 OPS and 22 homers. Christian Walker has 16 homers and an .815 OPS. Cam Smith has struggled with a .219 batting average and 6 homers. Taylor Trammell has a .297 batting average, a .357 on-base percentage, and a .748 OPS.
Against Grayson Rodriguez, Jake Meyers is 2 for 6 with a home run. Jose Altuve is 2 for 5 with a double. Isaac Paredes is 1 for 5 with a single. Jeremy Pena is 2 for 3 with 2 singles.
The Angels are jockeying with the Rockies for the worst record in baseball. It was entirely predictable that they would be this bad to everyone but their front office staff and owner Arte Moreno.
To try and start stringing together a few wins, they turned to Grayson Rodriguez.
Rodriguez was excellent for the Orioles in 2024 with a 1.6 bWAR and a 13-4 record. He was injured for all of 2025 with various maladies. He signed with the Angels and has struggled. In 4 starts, he has a -0.7 bWAR with a 9.50 ERA. In 18 innings, he's allowed 23 hits and 19 earned runs, walking 11 and striking out 17. He's surrendered 4 homers.
The Rockies pummelled him in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs in 3.2 innings.
The Angels are a bad team. They're horribly constructed, old, and coming apart. Former megastar Mike Trout is a shell of his former self. He does have 14 homers and an .844 OPS, but he's batting .226.
Young star Zach Neto has a .231 average and 12 homers. Jo Adell has 10 homers and a .675 OPS. Jorge Soler has a .702 OPS and 9 homers. Nolan Schanuel has a .680 OPS and 4 homers. Josh Lowe has a .546 OPS and 5 homers.
Against Arrighetti, Neto is 2 for 6 with 2 homers. Adam Frazier is 1 for 2 with a single. No other Angel has a hit against him.
On paper, this looks like an easy win for the Astros. Of course, the games are not played on paper. But the Angels and Rodriguez have been so terrible and Arrighetti has been so good that it would be a major upset if the Angels win.
Houston will take the first game of the series behind their blossoming ace Arrighetti and keep the Angels spiraling.
|
Pick
Houston Astros -1.5 (+135)
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
