Published Jun 7, 1:57pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 7, 1:57pm ET
Updated Jun 7, 1:57pm ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | +130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -155 |
Cristopher Sánchez is 1.46 ERA, 1.84 FIP this season. His last three starts produced a FIP of 1.47. He threw eight shutout innings against the Guardians on May 22 in a pitchers' duel that OptaSTATS called the best by two starters in tracked MLB history. Before that, he had gone 37.2 consecutive innings without allowing a run. He's 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three career starts against Toronto.
The Phillies' lineup behind him is built to score. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber give Philadelphia three of the better hitters in the National League. Toronto's bullpen will eventually need to cover innings if this game gets away from Corbin early, and the Phillies have shown all season they can make bullpens pay.
Patrick Corbin has a 3.98 ERA and 4.33 FIP on the season. He's 0-3 all-time against Philadelphia, a sample small enough not to carry too much weight, but consistent with his performance against upper-tier lineups more broadly. His FIP over his last three starts sits at 3.84, which is serviceable but not good enough to neutralize a Phillies offense this sharp.
Toronto is 31-34 and has shown some fight at home this year, going 18-14 at Rogers Centre. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer give the Blue Jays their best chance to put runs on the board. But asking Corbin to match Sánchez's production in this game is a tall order, and the Blue Jays' bullpen has been inconsistent when called on to hold leads.
Sánchez is 3-0 against this team and pitching the best baseball of his career. Corbin is 0-3 against this lineup. The FIP gap is nearly 2.5 runs. At -155 the price is reasonable for the gap in pitching quality.
Lay it. Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -155
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -155
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