Published Jun 7, 8:15pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 7, 8:15pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 7, 8:15pm ET
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| San Diego Padres | -130 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +118 |
The Reds have gone 13-24 since their high-water mark of 18-9 on April 25. They are currently on a 4-game losing streak, were just swept by the Cardinals, and have fallen to last place in the NL Central.
Lefty Andrew Abbott was quietly one of the better pitchers in the league last season with a 5.4 bWAR, finishing 8th in the NL Cy Young Award voting. This season, he's been up and down with a 1.1 bWAR and a 4.06 ERA. In 68.2 innings, he's allowed 68 hits and 31 earned runs, walking 31 and striking out 47. He's allowed 9 homers.
Abbott has been solid for 7 straight starts.
Cincinnati's offense has been productive this season. Elly De La Cruz has an .855 OPS and 12 homers. Sal Stewart is at .901 with 12 homers. JJ Bleday has come from nowhere with a .931 OPS and 10 homers. Nathaniel Lowe has 9 homers and an .834 OPS.
Matt McLain has struggled with a .671 OPS and 8 homers. Eugenio Suarez has been a bust so far with a .623 OPS and 4 homers.
Against Walker Buehler, Will Benson is 2 for 4 with a home run. Lowe is 4 for 8 with a triple. Spencer Steer is 1 for 5 with a home run. Suarez is 0 for 7 with 4 K's.
As badly as the Reds have played, the Padres are playing similarly terrible. Worse, they look indifferent about it.
To try and get back on track, they turn to Walker Buehler.
Buehler has a 4.53 EAR in 12 starts and a 0.5 bWAR. He's pitched well in his last 2 starts, both against the Phillies, allowing 3 earned runs in 11.1 innings. For the season, he's tossed 57.2 innings, allowed 54 hits and 29 earned runs, walking 20 and striking out 49. The righty was once one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he's now a back-of-the-rotation journeyman.
San Diego's offense has been horrid. Manny Machado is down to an unfathomable .169, though he has 11 home runs. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .226 with 8 homers. Jackson Merrill is batting .202 with 6 homers. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 1 home run in 63 games.
The team is 33-30 and fading.
For the Padres against Abbott, Tatis is 5 for 13 with a home run. Miguel Andujar is 1 for 1 with a double and a walk. Machado is 1 for 13 with a single. Merrill is 1 for 9 with a single. Gavin Sheets is 2 for 5 with 2 doubles.
With two increasingly desperate teams, the first game tends to set the tone. The Padres do not hustle at all and that starts with Machado. They're not getting much from Tatis and they're not as star-studded to cover for their indifference with money.
The Reds are better than the way they've played.
In this matchup, Abbott will hold down the Padres' already flagging offense and Cincinnati will take the win in the first game of the series in San Diego.
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Pick
Cincinnati Reds +118
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