Published Jun 5, 8:43pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 5, 8:43pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 5, 8:43pm ET
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| St. Louis Cardinals | -125 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +113 |
Cincinnati lefty Nick Lodolo makes his sixth start of the 2026 season after missing the first part of the season with a blister on his throwing hand. In past years, he looked like he was on the verge of superstardom. He's now trying to find his way after that delayed start.
His first two starts were poor, allowing 9 earned runs in 9.1 innings. The next three were decent. In his last appearance against the hard-hitting Braves, he held them to 3 earned runs in 6.2 innings.
Overall, he has a 0.3 bWAR and a 5.20 ERA. In 27.2 innings, he's allowed 25 hits and 16 earned runs, walking 13 and striking out 22. He's been prone to the longball, allowing 7 homers this season.
At the plate, Cincinnati is led by JJ Bleday, who has an OPS above 1.000 and double-digits in home runs after bouncing from Miami to the Athletics and failing to meet lofty expectations. Sal Stewart has an OPS approaching .820. Elly De La Cruz is over .850. Matt McLain is below .200. Eugenio Suarez has not started hitting for the expected power yet.
Against Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, Spencer Steer is 1 for 4 with a home run. Stewart is 1 for 3 with a home run. Nathaniel Lowe is 1 for 3 with a home run. Noelvi Marte is 3 for 8 with a home run. Suarez is 0 for 4 with 2 K's.
By now, it's clear that Matthew Liberatore's ceiling is a mid-rotation starter despite his status as a former 1st round pick by the Rays in the MLB Draft. As he showed in his last start against the Cubs, he can be very good. In 5.1 innings, he allowed 3 hits and no runs, walking 1 and striking out 4.
For the season, he has a 0.3 bWAR and a 4.35 ERA in 12 starts. In 62 innings, he's allowed 70 hits and 30 earned runs, walking 23 and striking out 57. He's surrendered 10 homers.
Jordan Walker has slowed down after his blazing start. His batting average has fallen below .300 and his OPS is now below .900. He's still having an All-Star season and is in the MVP conversation. JJ Weatherholt is approaching a .760 OPS. Ivan Herrera's OPS is closing in on .800.
Nolan Gorman's batting average is barely over .200. Pedro Pages is also struggling with an OPS just over .600.
For the Cardinals against Lodolo, Nelson Velazquez is 2 for 3 with a triple. Masyn Winn is 1 for 3 with a single. Herrera is 1 for 2 with a single. Alec Burleson is 1 for 3 with a single. Gorman is 0 for 2.
Both teams are hovering around .500, but in the NL Central, they are still within striking distance of 1st place. Neither team is playing all that well at the moment. Lodolo continues to try to get back to where he was in previous years. Liberatore tries to build on his last start.
Cincinnati will put up runs against the inconsistent Liberatore and Lodolo will hold the Cardinals down to give the Reds the win.
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Pick
Cincinnati Reds +113
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