Published Jun 1, 11:08am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 1, 11:08am ET
Updated Jun 1, 11:08am ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | -198 |
| Kansas City Royals | +166 |
Luinder Avila is 5.06 ERA and 3.57 FIP on the season. Earlier in the year, his ERA was running worse than his underlying numbers, bad luck rather than bad pitching. His FIP over his last three starts is 7.82. That number is no longer a sequencing story; the underlying contact quality has followed the ERA upward. He has given up runs because he has been pitching like a pitcher who gives up runs, and the Royals have gone 2-8 in their last ten games while he has been part of the staff.
Bobby Witt Jr. remains Kansas City's most dangerous bat. He is the one hitter in the order capable of changing a game's trajectory on a single swing, and the Royals will need him early if they are going to create any distance from what their starting pitcher is likely to give them tonight.
Chase Burns' FIP over his last three starts is 2.57 — the best recent mark among Cincinnati starters and trending well below his already solid season number. He has been in command of his outings, limiting hard contact and working deep enough into games to keep the bullpen fresh. Great American Ball Park plays as one of the more offensive environments in the NL, and Burns has been handling hitter-friendly conditions without it showing up in the results.
The Reds lineup has Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart near the top of the order — the same duo that has been one of the more productive one-two combinations in the NL Central this season. Against a pitcher with Avila's trajectory, Cincinnati's lineup should find early opportunities.
Avila's FIP went from 3.57 on the season to 7.82 over his last three starts. Burns is trending in the opposite direction at 2.57. The Royals are 2-8 in their last ten and have not been winning games when the pitching gets hit. At -198 the price is heavy; Burns' recent numbers and Avila's recent collapse make it the right side.
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Pick
Cincinnati Reds -198
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