Published Jun 1, 11:14am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 1, 11:14am ET
Updated Jun 1, 11:14am ET
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| Washington Nationals | -144 |
| Miami Marlins | +119 |
Sandy Alcantara is carrying a 5.36 ERA this season. His season FIP is 4.36. His FIP over his last three starts is 6.21. Alcantara's recent form has been significantly worse than his year-long numbers, and the trajectory is going the wrong way. His strikeout rate sits at 6.22 per nine innings, which is not elite territory, and the Nationals rank fourth in slugging and have scored 324 runs this season. They are not a team that disappears against struggling pitchers.
Miami's lineup has James Wood as its most dangerous contributor, and the Marlins have scored enough runs this month to stay competitive. But with Alcantara pitching to numbers that have deteriorated over the last few weeks, the Marlins will need early offense before the innings become difficult to manage.
Cade Cavalli's FIP over his last three starts is 2.79. That is a significant step forward from earlier in the season and reflects a pitcher who has found something better command, better location, and sharper secondary pitches over his most recent outings. The Nationals have been 6-4 in their last ten, and a hot Cavalli at home against a pitcher trending cold makes this one of the cleaner spots on Monday's board.
Washington has the lineup edge by 54 OPS points over what Miami brings. CJ Abrams and James Wood on the Nationals side give the lineup legitimate top-of-order presence. The Nationals have been scoring runs and playing winning baseball long enough to make -144 look like a fair reflection of where these two teams are right now.
Alcantara's last-three FIP is 6.21. Cavalli's is 2.79. The Nationals have the lineup edge and the better recent form. Washington at home with the hotter pitcher against a starter trending the wrong direction, this is where the value is tonight.
Pick: Washington Nationals -144
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Pick
Washington Nationals -144
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