Published May 20, 2:36am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 20, 2:36am ET
Updated May 20, 2:36am ET
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| Chicago Cubs | -117 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -103 |
Kyle Harrison is 2.09 ERA with a 2.92 FIP, and both numbers belong to the same pitcher. The FIP is a full run higher than the ERA, which means there is a modest luck element in the results — but a 2.92 FIP is still elite territory, and Harrison has earned the reputation he has built this season. He strikes out batters at a high rate, keeps the ball in the park, and gives Milwaukee six or seven innings on a consistent basis. The Cubs are getting the better arm tonight by the numbers that matter most.
Milwaukee is 8-2 in their last ten. That record has been built on exactly the kind of pitching Harrison represents, combined with a lineup that has been producing runs at one of the better rates in the National League. The Brewers are not walking into Wrigley as a team searching for answers — they are a team that has been winning and has the starter to keep doing it.
Edward Cabrera's FIP is 4.54. His ERA has been running better than that — he has had starts where his stuff generated enough weak contact to survive innings that could have gone differently. But 4.54 FIP against a Brewers team averaging runs at an 8-2 clip over the last ten games is not a comfortable position, particularly at Wrigley Field where the wind and the dimensions can turn a bad inning into a big one quickly.
The Cubs lineup has the edge in this game at .742 OPS compared to Milwaukee's .701. Ian Happ and Alex Bregman have been the offensive anchors, and when the top of the order is on base early, the lineup has enough depth to score against a pitcher working from behind. Wrigley gives Chicago an environment where the crowd and the park work together, and the Cubs at home have been one of the harder outs in the NL this year.
Harrison is the better pitcher by FIP. Cubs have the lineup edge and Wrigley. When the pitching and lineup arrows point different directions at home, the home team's lineup tends to win that argument, especially at -117 with Cabrera capable of pitching to his ERA rather than his FIP on any given night.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -117
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Pick
Chicago Cubs -117
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