Published Jun 23, 9:13pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 23, 9:13pm ET
Updated Jun 23, 9:13pm ET
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| Colorado Rockies | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox | -175 |
Ranger Suárez is 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA. He struck out seven Rangers batters on June 13 and eight Phillies batters in May in what has been a string of quality starts since joining Boston. His FIP of 2.89 sits just below the ERA, no sequencing luck propping up the number, and his FIP over his last three starts is 1.98, the sharpest three-start stretch of his season. Suárez works off a fastball-changeup combination that generates weak contact and limits walks, and his command has been the story in every recent outing.
Boston is 31-45 and has gone 4-6 in its last ten games. Their .690 OPS is the thinner offensive unit in this matchup. The Red Sox need him to dominate because their lineup hasn't been generating consistent run support.
Kyle Freeland is 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA. The season line is one of the worst for any starter in the NL. His FIP of 5.13 is a more park-adjusted baseline, and even at Coors Field that number reflects a starter who has allowed hard contact at an elevated rate throughout the year. The important caveat: his FIP over his last three starts is 2.48, which is a sharp correction from the season baseline. He has been generating more weak contact and fewer walks in recent outings, and one of those starts was a quality effort against a competitive lineup.
Colorado is 31-48 and carries a .733 OPS into Wednesday, the lineup edge in this game. Their recent form (6-4 last ten) is also better than Boston's over the same stretch. Note the park: Coors Field inflates every number for both pitchers. Suárez's ERA at altitude will likely look different from what his numbers suggest.
Suárez with a 1.98 FIP over his last three starts is the case for Boston. Freeland's recent correction is real and his 2.48 last-three FIP is a genuine counter.
Red Sox.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -175
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Pick
Boston Red Sox -175
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