Published Jun 23, 9:43pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 23, 9:43pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 23, 9:43pm ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | -150 |
| Houston Astros | +136 |
Mike Burrows returns to the Astros' starting rotation after making one relief appearance. He's had a poor season, leading the AL in losses, and has a 5.79 ERA. His bWAR is -0.7. In 79.1 innings, he's allowed 95 hits and also leads the AL in earned runs allowed with 51. The righty has surrendered 18 homers, walked 30, and struck out 66.
The Astros looked like they were buried early in the season and manager Joe Espada was said to be in jeopardy. But since then, they've crawled back into contention in the mediocre AL West and could very well win that division.
At the plate, Yordan Alvarez is one of the most dangerous hitters in MLB and is near the league leaders in just about every offensive category. Christian Walker is in the top-10 in the AL in homers. Cam Smith continues to struggle with a batting average in the .220s.
No Astros hitter has ever faced Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage in the regular season.
Trey Yesavage had a start turn in the 2025 postseason. Toronto has been cautious with him this year since he was only drafted two years ago. He got off to an excellent start this season, but has struggled badly in three of his last five starts. He rebounded somewhat against the Red Sox in his last start, tossing 7.1 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 earned runs, and 2 homers, walking none and striking out 6.
In 2026, he's got a 1.4 bWAR and a 3.76 ERA. In 55 innings, he's allowed 39 hits and 23 earned runs. He's walked 25, struck out 53, and given up 5 homers.
Toronto is trying to get to .500 and beyond before it can get into playoff contention. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in home runs and has a near .800 OPS. George Springer has been hot lately, and his batting average is rising toward .230. Ernie Clement is having an All-Star season with an average approaching .300. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having a down year for him with only 4 homers and an OPS in the .720s.
The only Blue Jays hitter who has faced Mike Burrows is Jesus Sanchez. He's 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
On the surface, this matchup is a clear advantage for the Blue Jays. Although Yesavage has hit a rough patch of late, he's pitched well overall. Burrows has gotten pounded for the most part all season.
Toronto's hitting has been devoid of power. Houston has one of baseball's most dangerous hitters in Alvarez. In this matchup, though, the Blue Jays will get to Burrows and win the game going away behind their young righty Yesavage.
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Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
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