The Miami Dolphins (6-7) have won four of five to crawl back into playoff contention. They travel to Houston to take on the Texans (8-5). Our Dolphins vs Texans prediction is for underdog Miami to cover the 2.5-point spread.
Head-to-head, Houston leads with a record of 8-3.
Offshore Odds: Houston Favored by 2.5 Points
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +2.5 (+102) | +128 | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Texans | -2.5 (-122) | -148 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Miami Can Still Make the Playoffs
Miami kept its playoff hopes alive with its Week 14 comeback win over the Jets. If they beat Houston, they will be at .500. Their remaining schedule includes games against the injury-ravaged 49ers, the Browns, and the Jets.
They could conceivably run the table.
Miami’s numbers on a game-by-game basis need to be put in the context of being without Tua Tagovailoa for five games. Their passing game has been understandably more effective with Tua running the show. They are 24th in rushing yards per game, but their running game is predominately based on short passes. They have been a solid defensive team overall.
Notably, Miami and veteran receiver Odell Beckham Jr. parted ways. This will get more attention than is warranted because of Beckham’s NFL prominence. In nine games for Miami, OBJ was targeted 18 times and caught nine balls. The only surprise is that he wasn’t complaining so much that they pulled the trigger on him before now.
Houston has a good defense and they are fourth in the league in takeaway differential. For Miami to win, they must not turn the ball over. The Texans are without suspended linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, which should benefit the Dolphins.
Houston’s Playoff Position is Mostly Safe
It is difficult to envision Houston losing three of its final four games while Indianapolis wins out — which is what would need to happen for the Colts to take the division — but it is theoretically possible.
Houston had its bye in Week 14 giving much-needed rest for dinged-up offensive stars Nico Collins and Joe Mixon.
Their previous game was the victory over Jacksonville. It was also the ill-fated game where Al-Shaair was ejected for his late hit knocking out Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He was subsequently suspended and will not be eligible to return until Week 18 against Tennessee, a game that might matter to Houston.
Both teams have played well defensively.
This game is vital for both teams, but it is strangely more important for Houston because they’ve been in first place all season. Miami is trying to crawl back into playoff position when it looked impossible.
Dolphins vs Texans Prediction: Expect a Closely-Pitched Battle
Houston has struggled since starting the season at 6-2. In that time, they had one impressive win blowing out the Cowboys. They lost to the Jets, the Lions, and the Titans. They barely squeaked by Jacksonville.
Miami has benefited from a largely weak schedule of its own. Expect a close game with underdog Miami covering the 2.5 points.
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Pick
Dolphins +2.5
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