Published May 26, 9:47am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 26, 9:47am ET
Updated May 26, 9:47am ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | +168 |
| New York Yankees | -205 |
Cam Schlittler is 1.50 ERA and 1.86 FIP. Both numbers are in the same zip code, which means the dominance is real and not borrowed. Schlittler has been the most reliable arm in the Yankees' rotation all season, limiting hard contact, working deep into games, and giving New York the kind of starts that make a lineup's job straightforward. He is not in a hot streak. He has been this good since April.
Aaron Judge leads the Yankees lineup with a power profile that puts pressure on pitchers from the first pitch. The lineup carries a .062 OPS advantage over what Kansas City is bringing, and at Kauffman Stadium, a park that does not particularly inflate offense, the Yankees have enough to win this game without needing to score in double digits.
Bailey Falter has a 9.82 ERA. His FIP is 5.74. The FIP says the ERA is not entirely the product of bad luck — the contact quality and walk rates behind the surface number are genuinely concerning. Falter has been hit hard and the underlying numbers confirm it. A 9.82 ERA through a meaningful sample of starts is not an aberration. It is a pitcher who is giving up runs because he is allowing the conditions for runs to happen.
Kansas City's lineup has Bobby Witt Jr. as its most dangerous weapon, and when he produces early, it forces opposing pitchers to work differently. The Royals are capable of making a game competitive against almost anyone. But asking Falter to hold a Yankees lineup with this kind of OPS edge to a manageable number is a significant ask, given what the numbers say about where he is right now.
-205 is a serious number. What earns it: Schlittler has a 1.86 FIP to go with a 1.50 ERA, and Falter has a 5.74 FIP to go with a 9.82 ERA, which is a gap of nearly four runs between these two pitchers by the number that matters most. The largest pitching edge on today's board belongs to New York. Lay the juice. The Yankees win this game.
Pick: New York Yankees -205
|
Pick
New York Yankees -205
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
