Published May 26, 9:52am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 26, 9:52am ET
Updated May 26, 9:52am ET
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| Baltimore Orioles | -105 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -115 |
Griffin Jax is 3.54 ERA with a 4.90 FIP. The ERA has been running ahead of where his underlying contact numbers sit — his strand rates and sequencing have kept the surface results looking cleaner than the batted ball data would predict. He is a functional arm and not a liability in this rotation, but the 3.54 is a more flattering picture than the 4.90. Tampa Bay needs him to be the version the ERA describes tonight, not the one the FIP implies.
Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz have been the primary offensive producers for Tampa Bay, and the Rays carry a .723 OPS — 22 points above what Baltimore is bringing. The lineup edge is real, and Tampa Bay has won six of its last ten, giving them the form to back up a solid but imperfect starting pitcher with run support.
Shane Baz is 4.87 ERA with a 4.48 FIP. The ERA has been running slightly worse than his underlying numbers, a handful of high-damage innings have inflated a surface number that his FIP says does not fully reflect his actual performance. He is a legitimate mid-rotation arm and tonight he pitches at home where Camden Yards can cut both ways. The Orioles' lineup with Gunnar Henderson at the heart of it gives Baltimore a genuine chance to score off any starter not operating at the top of his game.
This one is priced as a coin flip at -115 and -105. The Rays have the lineup edge, the better recent form, and a starter whose ERA and FIP together still come out ahead of Baz even accounting for the gap between them. At near-even money, the team with the better lineup and the better record over the last ten gets the call. Tampa Bay tonight.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -115
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Pick
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -115
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